Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Will RileyPoints18
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Bub CarringtonRebounds10
Hawks- Jonathan KumingaPoints27
- Onyeka OkongwuAssists7
- Mouhamed GueyeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–119
- Q41.6Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound98–119
- Q42.6Alondes Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper98–119
- Q416.2shot clock turnover98–119
- Q437.0Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound98–119
- Q441.0Sharife Cooper misses free throw 2 of 298–119
- Q441.0Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 298–119
- Q441.0Keaton Wallace personal foul97–119
- Q452.1Alondes Williams defensive rebound97–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:36CJ McCollum makes running layup (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)WSH 0 – 3 ATL · ATL 84% → 87% +2ATL 84% → 87%+2 pts
- Q16:04Gabe Vincent makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)WSH 10 – 15 ATL · ATL 84% → 88% +4ATL 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q15:36Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot running jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)WSH 10 – 18 ATL · ATL 88% → 91% +3ATL 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q15:25Tristan Vukcevic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 13 – 18 ATL · WSH 9% → 12% +3WSH 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q13:38Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)WSH 13 – 25 ATL · ATL 92% → 94% +2ATL 92% → 94%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -12.5
- ML WSH +470 / ATL -650
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6.5
- ATL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 74.1%, market 83.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -494
- WSH +494 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.0 – 124.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1328 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −1 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +182 Elo | ATL 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 81.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 80.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 83.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 116.910th of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 118.324th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.3 | Margin | −1.419th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 112.417th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.6 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.2 | Pace | 103.75th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–21 | Road vs home | 11–1623rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 29th of 301328 | Elo rating | 147119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–32 | 28–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 22–30 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 30–26 | 29–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–6 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Dec 6ATL 131 @ WSH 116Picked ATL 78%Hit
- Nov 25ATL 113 @ WSH 132Picked ATL 81%Miss
- Feb 8ATL 125 @ WSH 111Picked ATL 69%Hit
- Nov 15WSH 117 @ ATL 129Picked ATL 77%Hit
- Oct 30ATL 120 @ WSH 133Picked ATL 65%Miss
- Oct 28WSH 121 @ ATL 119Picked ATL 73%Miss
- Jan 13WSH 127 @ ATL 99Picked ATL 63%Miss
- Dec 31ATL 130 @ WSH 126Picked ATL 58%Hit