Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Rayan RupertPoints20
- Cam SpencerAssists8
- Rayan RupertRebounds8
Nets- Day'Ron SharpePoints19
- Ben SarafAssists7
- Danny WolfRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–126
- Q40.0(00:00) [Grizzlies] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)115–126
- Q41.3Tyson Etienne makes 25-foot turnaround jump shot115–126
- Q418.2Javon Small makes 1-foot running dunk115–123
- Q420.6Ben Saraf bad pass
turnover (Javon Small steals)113–123
- Q431.9Javon Small makes 25-foot three point jumper113–123
- Q438.6Jahmai Mashack defensive rebound110–123
- Q442.9Tyson Etienne misses driving layup110–123
- Q453.1Walter Clayton Jr. makes driving layup110–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:34Cam Spencer makes 27-foot three pointer (GG Jackson assists)MEM 62 – 65 BKN · MEM 31% → 39% +8MEM 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q310:17Danny Wolf makes 28-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)MEM 62 – 68 BKN · BKN 61% → 69% +8BKN 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q39:16GG Jackson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)MEM 67 – 68 BKN · MEM 36% → 45% +9MEM 36% → 45%+9 pts
- Q38:42Danny Wolf makes 28-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)MEM 67 – 71 BKN · BKN 55% → 64% +9BKN 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q38:03Noah Clowney makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)MEM 67 – 74 BKN · BKN 64% → 73% +9BKN 64% → 73%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -1.5
- ML MEM +102 / BKN -122
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2.5
- BKN 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.3 pts
- BKN: Elo 39.3%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- BKN -111
- MEM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 109.5 – 111.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1311 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −77 | −68 | MEM: Missing Ty Jerome −47, Brandon Clarke −16, Cedric Coward −15 · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +76 Elo | MEM 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 106.930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 115.616th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −8.728th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 108.029th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 116.827th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.4 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–19 | Road vs home | 8–2230th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301444 | Elo rating | 131129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−77 Elo- Ty Jerome right calf−47 Elo
- Brandon Clarke not with team−16 Elo
- Cedric Coward right knee injury−15 Elo
Nets
−68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–32 | 28–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 20–23 | 25–34 |
| Overs–unders | 30–32 | 29–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–3 BKN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.