Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jrue HolidayPoints35
- Jrue HolidayAssists11
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds11
Grizzlies- Jaylen WellsPoints24
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists8
- Olivier-Maxence ProsperRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–114
- Q41.4Jerami Grant defensive rebound122–114
- Q45.1GG Jackson misses 30-foot three point jumper122–114
- Q410.3Jerami Grant bad pass
turnover (Jaylen Wells steals)122–114
- Q412.9GG Jackson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot122–114
- Q425.7Jrue Holiday makes 6-foot floating jump shot (Toumani Camara assists)122–111
- Q437.1Vit Krejci offensive rebound120–111
- Q441.5Scoot Henderson misses 24-foot three point jumper120–111
- Q41:01Vit Krejci enters the game for Sidy Cissoko120–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:46Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 50 – 55 MEM · POR 49% → 58% +8POR 49% → 58%+8 pts
- Q213.8Jrue Holiday makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 59 – 59 MEM · POR 62% → 70% +8POR 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q37:13Jaylen Wells makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)POR 74 – 75 MEM · MEM 27% → 35% +9MEM 27% → 35%+9 pts
- Q48:07Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 103 – 98 MEM · POR 71% → 82% +11POR 71% → 82%+11 pts
- Q47:28Jrue Holiday makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 106 – 98 MEM · POR 83% → 91% +8POR 83% → 91%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- POR -9.5
- ML POR -395 / MEM +310
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -2.5
- POR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.4 pts
- POR: Elo 60.2%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- POR -327
- MEM +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 120.5 – 111.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | −75 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −45, Deni Avdija −17, Shaedon Sharpe −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Ty Jerome −46, Brandon Clarke −16, Cedric Coward −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +72 Elo | POR 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 115.615th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 117.723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.1 | Margin | −2.120th of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 111.323rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 113.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 103.56th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 11–1724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301443 | Elo rating | 145520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+5 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles rehab−45 Elo
- Deni Avdija lower back injury management−17 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe left leg injury−9 Elo
Grizzlies
−75 Elo- Ty Jerome right calf−46 Elo
- Brandon Clarke right calf strain−16 Elo
- Cedric Coward right knee−15 Elo
- Scotty Pippen Jr. left toe−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–29 | 28–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–11 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders | 34–28 | 28–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 6–4 MEM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Feb 7MEM 115 @ POR 122Picked POR 74%Hit
- Feb 6MEM 115 @ POR 135Picked POR 71%Hit
- Dec 7POR 96 @ MEM 119Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Mar 19MEM 99 @ POR 115Picked MEM 62%Miss
- Nov 25POR 98 @ MEM 123Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Nov 10MEM 134 @ POR 89Picked MEM 52%Hit
- Mar 2POR 107 @ MEM 100Picked MEM 53%Miss
- Mar 1POR 122 @ MEM 92Picked MEM 65%Miss