Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Cam SpencerPoints25
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists5
- Olivier-Maxence ProsperRebounds10
Mavericks- Brandon WilliamsPoints16
- Brandon WilliamsAssists4
- Dwight PowellRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–105
- Q45.6Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound124–105
- Q48.6Miles Kelly misses 23-foot running jump shot124–105
- Q413.9Dwight Powell defensive rebound124–105
- Q417.8Taylor Hendricks misses 24-foot three point jumper124–105
- Q438.1Moussa Cisse makes two point shot124–105
- Q438.1Moussa Cisse offensive rebound124–103
- Q439.5Taylor Hendricks blocks Moussa Cisse 's 3-foot layup124–103
- Q441.1Moussa Cisse offensive rebound124–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:05Cam Spencer makes 23-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)MEM 18 – 9 DAL · MEM 50% → 57% +7MEM 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q11:50Tyus Jones makes 27-foot three point jumper (Miles Kelly assists)MEM 24 – 17 DAL · DAL 39% → 46% +7DAL 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q128.2Javon Small makes 26-foot three pointerMEM 32 – 20 DAL · MEM 59% → 66% +7MEM 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q25:23Miles Kelly makes 23-foot running jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)MEM 44 – 36 DAL · DAL 32% → 40% +7DAL 32% → 40%+7 pts
- Q25:06Cam Spencer makes 29-foot three pointer (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)MEM 47 – 36 DAL · MEM 60% → 68% +7MEM 60% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -4.5
- ML MEM +164 / DAL -198
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3
- DAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 62.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -175
- MEM +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 118.5 – 123.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −98 | +2 | MEM: Missing Ty Jerome −43, Cedric Coward −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +86 Elo | DAL 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 67.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 114.522nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 117.922nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.7 | Margin | −3.322nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 109.626th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.5 | Pace | 103.65th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–18 | Road vs home | 14–1721st of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301423 | Elo rating | 141323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−98 Elo- Ty Jerome left thigh contusion−43 Elo
- Cedric Coward right knee−18 Elo
Mavericks
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–32 | 26–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 15–23 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 28–29 | 27–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 7–3 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Nov 22MEM 102 @ DAL 96Picked MEM 51%Hit
- Nov 7DAL 104 @ MEM 118Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Apr 13DAL 97 @ MEM 132Picked DAL 55%Miss
- Mar 7MEM 122 @ DAL 111Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Jan 6DAL 104 @ MEM 119Picked MEM 62%Hit
- Dec 3MEM 116 @ DAL 121Picked DAL 63%Hit
- Jan 9MEM 120 @ DAL 103Picked DAL 74%Miss
- Dec 11DAL 120 @ MEM 113Picked DAL 60%Hit