Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Precious AchiuwaPoints29
- Nique CliffordAssists7
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds12
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints36
- Naji MarshallAssists6
- Naji MarshallRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–121
- Q417.4Marvin Bagley III bad pass
turnover (Devin Carter steals)130–121
- Q422.7Nique Clifford makes 6-foot two point shot130–121
- Q443.9Nique Clifford defensive rebound128–121
- Q446.8Precious Achiuwa blocks Naji Marshall 's 5-foot driving floating jump shot128–121
- Q451.9Mavericks Full timeout128–121
- Q452.2Daeqwon Plowden makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)128–121
- Q41:14Khris Middleton bad pass
turnover (Precious Achiuwa steals)125–121
- Q41:29Precious Achiuwa makes two point shot125–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:16AJ Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)SAC 114 – 109 DAL · DAL 14% → 28% +13DAL 14% → 28%+13 pts
- Q43:37Brandon Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)SAC 118 – 114 DAL · DAL 12% → 28% +15DAL 12% → 28%+15 pts
- Q42:46Devin Carter makes 1-foot layup (Precious Achiuwa assists)SAC 120 – 115 DAL · SAC 69% → 83% +13SAC 69% → 83%+13 pts
- Q41:56Brandon Williams makes driving layupSAC 123 – 120 DAL · DAL 12% → 26% +14DAL 12% → 26%+14 pts
- Q41:29Precious Achiuwa makes two point shotSAC 125 – 121 DAL · SAC 69% → 86% +17SAC 69% → 86%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -7.5
- ML SAC +250 / DAL -310
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -7.5
- DAL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 77.1%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -265
- SAC +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.5 – 122.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1347 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −76 | −25 | SAC: Missing Dylan Cardwell −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +211 Elo | DAL 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.1 | Points allowed | 117.622nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.0 | Margin | −3.223rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 109.426th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.8 | Defense rating | 112.514th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.3 | Pace | 103.65th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–27 | Road vs home | 14–1621st of 30 |
| 1st of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301347 | Elo rating | 143122nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−76 Elo- Dylan Cardwell sprained left ankle−11 Elo
Mavericks
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–37 | 26–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 21–33 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 30–30 | 26–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 6–3 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Jan 6DAL 100 @ SAC 98Picked DAL 63%Hit
- Dec 27DAL 107 @ SAC 113Picked DAL 56%Miss
- Mar 3SAC 122 @ DAL 98Picked SAC 54%Hit
- Feb 10SAC 129 @ DAL 128Picked SAC 51%Hit
- Dec 30DAL 100 @ SAC 110Picked SAC 73%Hit
- Mar 29DAL 107 @ SAC 103Picked DAL 56%Hit
- Mar 26DAL 132 @ SAC 96Picked DAL 52%Hit
- Jan 27SAC 120 @ DAL 115Picked SAC 53%Hit