Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Will RichardPoints21
- Pat SpencerAssists9
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds8
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints24
- Ty JeromeAssists5
- GG JacksonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–112
- Q41.2shot clock turnover133–112
- Q425.2Rayan Rupert makes two point shot (GG Jackson assists)133–112
- Q429.0GG Jackson defensive rebound133–110
- Q432.9Taylor Hendricks blocks Pat Spencer 's 18-foot pullup jump shot133–110
- Q452.9Quinten Post defensive rebound133–110
- Q456.8Javon Small misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot133–110
- Q458.3Javon Small offensive rebound133–110
- Q41:02Jaylen Wells misses 24-foot three point jumper133–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:57Gary Payton II makes 24-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)GS 14 – 10 MEM · GS 63% → 69% +6GS 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q14:12Quinten Post makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)GS 23 – 19 MEM · GS 63% → 69% +6GS 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q12:50Will Richard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)GS 28 – 24 MEM · GS 63% → 69% +6GS 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q10.5GG Jackson makes 39-foot three point shot (Cam Spencer assists)GS 34 – 31 MEM · MEM 27% → 33% +6MEM 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q211:35Moses Moody makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 37 – 31 MEM · GS 67% → 73% +6GS 67% → 73%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML GS -180 / MEM +150
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -0.5
- GS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- GS: Elo 51.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- GS -161
- MEM +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 115.5 – 112.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −70 | −54 | GS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −33, De'Anthony Melton −21 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Santi Aldama −14, Cedric Coward −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +7 Elo | GS 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 56.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 115.517th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 117.822nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −2.420th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 111.025th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 113.217th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.8 | Pace | 103.66th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3011–17 | Road vs home | 11–1624th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301539 | Elo rating | 143922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−70 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis general illness−33 Elo
- De'Anthony Melton left knee injury management−21 Elo
Grizzlies
−54 Elo- Santi Aldama right knee injury−14 Elo
- Cedric Coward right knee sprain−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–32 | 25–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–22 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 15–22 |
| Overs–unders | 34–24 | 27–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 7–2 MEM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Feb 9MEM 113 @ GS 114Picked GS 77%Hit
- Oct 27MEM 118 @ GS 131Picked GS 74%Hit
- Apr 1GS 134 @ MEM 125Picked GS 57%Hit
- Jan 4MEM 113 @ GS 121Picked GS 57%Hit
- Dec 19GS 93 @ MEM 144Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Nov 15MEM 118 @ GS 123Picked GS 72%Hit
- Mar 20MEM 116 @ GS 137Picked GS 70%Hit
- Feb 2GS 121 @ MEM 101Picked MEM 50%Miss