Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- De'Anthony MeltonPoints28
- Draymond GreenAssists6
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds15
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints26
- Jeremiah FearsAssists5
- Karlo MatkovicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–113
- Q41.2Moses Moody makes 25-foot three pointer109–113
- Q49.4Dejounte Murray makes free throw 2 of 2106–113
- Q49.4Dejounte Murray makes free throw 1 of 2106–112
- Q49.4Brandin Podziemski personal foul106–111
- Q413.0Brandin Podziemski makes 2-foot floating jump shot106–111
- Q413.7Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound104–111
- Q416.9Moses Moody misses 29-foot jump bank shot104–111
- Q418.8Warriors Full timeout104–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:01Bryce McGowens makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)GS 70 – 73 NO · NO 49% → 60% +12NO 49% → 60%+12 pts
- Q46:32Saddiq Bey makes 24-foot running jump shot (Herbert Jones assists)GS 86 – 93 NO · NO 71% → 83% +13NO 71% → 83%+13 pts
- Q46:16Brandin Podziemski makes 28-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 89 – 93 NO · GS 16% → 29% +13GS 16% → 29%+13 pts
- Q42:02De'Anthony Melton makes driving layupGS 101 – 104 NO · GS 11% → 23% +12GS 11% → 23%+12 pts
- Q41:47Saddiq Bey makes two point shotGS 101 – 106 NO · NO 79% → 91% +12NO 79% → 91%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- GS -1.5
- ML GS -122 / NO +102
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1
- GS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- GS: Elo 54.6%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- GS -111
- NO +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 115.5 – 114.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1366 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −68 | +20 | GS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −30, Al Horford −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +32 Elo | GS 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 114.820th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 120.627th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −5.725th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 111.523rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 117.127th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.7 | Pace | 102.114th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 10–2128th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15114th of 30 |
| 10th of 301546 | Elo rating | 136626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−68 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis illness−30 Elo
- Al Horford left toe−7 Elo
Pelicans
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–31 | 30–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–21 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 24–25 |
| Overs–unders | 34–23 | 30–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 7–2 NO in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.