Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints34
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds19
Trail Blazers- Jrue HolidayPoints22
- Scoot HendersonAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–121
- Q40.0(00:00) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)124–121
- Q40.3Jerami Grant makes 33-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)124–121
- Q41.5(00:01.5) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)124–118
- Q41.5Toumani Camara defensive goaltending violation124–118
- Q41.5Jaden McDaniels makes driving layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)124–118
- Q45.2Vit Krejci makes 23-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)122–118
- Q47.2Vit Krejci enters the game for Donovan Clingan122–115
- Q47.2Donovan Clingan enters the game for Vit Krejci122–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:06Matisse Thybulle makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)MIN 93 – 92 POR · POR 26% → 37% +11POR 26% → 37%+11 pts
- Q410:21Donte DiVincenzo makes 29-foot three pointerMIN 99 – 96 POR · MIN 58% → 71% +12MIN 58% → 71%+12 pts
- Q49:55Matisse Thybulle makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)MIN 99 – 99 POR · POR 29% → 42% +13POR 29% → 42%+13 pts
- Q46:47Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 109 – 102 POR · MIN 77% → 87% +11MIN 77% → 87%+11 pts
- Q43:41Toumani Camara makes two point shotMIN 111 – 108 POR · POR 14% → 25% +10POR 14% → 25%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -6.5
- ML MIN -238 / POR +195
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.2%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -208
- POR +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 120.5 – 114.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −27 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −26, Robert Williams III −14, Shaedon Sharpe −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +65 Elo | MIN 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.5 | Points scored | 115.715th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 118.224th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −2.621st of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 111.424th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.8 | Pace | 103.47th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 10th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 16–1416th of 30 |
| 27th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15172nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301536 | Elo rating | 145821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−27 Elo- Deni Avdija lower back injury management−26 Elo
- Robert Williams III sore right foot−14 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe strained left calf−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–33 | 31–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–28 | 12–11 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–2 POR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Feb 11POR 109 @ MIN 133Picked MIN 71%Hit
- Oct 22MIN 118 @ POR 114Picked MIN 63%Hit
- Feb 8POR 98 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 59%Hit
- Nov 13MIN 98 @ POR 106Picked MIN 80%Miss
- Nov 12MIN 108 @ POR 122Picked MIN 72%Miss
- Nov 8POR 102 @ MIN 127Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Mar 4POR 114 @ MIN 119Picked MIN 71%Hit
- Feb 15MIN 128 @ POR 91Picked MIN 73%Hit