Portland Trail Blazers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints27
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds14
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints20
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Nick RichardsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–112
- Q410.3Matas Buzelis bad pass
turnover (Jrue Holiday steals)121–112
- Q418.4Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2121–112
- Q418.4Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2120–112
- Q418.4Josh Giddey personal take foul119–112
- Q418.9Matas Buzelis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)119–112
- Q425.8Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2119–109
- Q425.8Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Robert Williams III118–109
- Q425.8Rob Dillingham enters the game for Tre Jones118–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:54Josh Giddey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)POR 75 – 75 CHI · CHI 34% → 43% +9CHI 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q36:53Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)POR 80 – 75 CHI · POR 63% → 72% +9POR 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q35:26Rob Dillingham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)POR 80 – 78 CHI · CHI 28% → 37% +9CHI 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q43:37Leonard Miller makes dunk (Tre Jones assists)POR 108 – 105 CHI · CHI 15% → 26% +11CHI 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q41:57Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 111 – 105 CHI · POR 80% → 95% +15POR 80% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML POR -170 / CHI +142
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- POR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- POR: Elo 48.3%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- POR -152
- CHI +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 119.5 – 116.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −42 | −14 | POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −33, Deni Avdija −28 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +12 Elo | CHI 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 115.814th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 120.427th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.6 | Margin | −4.624th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 111.424th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 116.325th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 18th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 15–1620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 30 |
| 21st of 301454 | Elo rating | 137825th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−42 Elo- Donovan Clingan illness−33 Elo
- Deni Avdija lower back injury management−28 Elo
Bulls
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–27 | 25–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 33–26 | 28–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–4 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.