Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints23
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Miles BridgesRebounds7
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints32
- Josh GiddeyAssists5
- Matas BuzelisRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–99
- Q49.2shot clock turnover131–99
- Q433.2Leonard Miller makes 1-foot two point shot (Collin Sexton assists)131–99
- Q440.5Tre Mann makes two point shot131–97
- Q441.9Leonard Miller bad pass
turnover (Tre Mann steals)129–97
- Q445.8Leonard Miller defensive rebound129–97
- Q447.6Xavier Tillman misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot129–97
- Q41:10Leonard Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)129–97
- Q41:18Tre Mann makes 26-foot three pointer129–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:23Patrick Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)CHA 36 – 45 CHI · CHI 46% → 54% +8CHI 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q25:49LaMelo Ball makes 23-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHA 41 – 47 CHI · CHA 45% → 53% +8CHA 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q24:46Coby White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 46 – 47 CHI · CHA 58% → 65% +8CHA 58% → 65%+8 pts
- Q311:35Matas Buzelis makes 26-foot running jump shot (Isaac Okoro assists)CHA 56 – 58 CHI · CHI 31% → 39% +8CHI 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q311:21LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 59 – 58 CHI · CHA 61% → 69% +8CHA 61% → 69%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -8.5
- ML CHA -310 / CHI +250
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -7.5
- CHA 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- CHA: Elo 77.4%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- CHA -265
- CHI +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 120.5 – 112.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +55 | −40 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Jalen Smith −20 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +214 Elo | CHA 77.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 71.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 116.112th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 120.326th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.9 | Margin | −4.224th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 111.622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 116.025th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 104.12nd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 13th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 15–1518th of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 30 |
| 11th of 301541 | Elo rating | 138724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−40 Elo- Jalen Smith strained right calf−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–22 | 25–33 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 26–16 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 23–35 | 28–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 3–8 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Jan 3CHA 112 @ CHI 99Picked CHI 55%Miss
- Dec 12CHI 129 @ CHA 126Picked CHI 56%Hit
- Nov 28CHI 116 @ CHA 123Picked CHI 56%Miss
- Apr 6CHI 131 @ CHA 117Picked CHI 75%Hit
- Jan 17CHA 125 @ CHI 123Picked CHI 63%Miss
- Dec 30CHI 115 @ CHA 108Picked CHI 61%Hit
- Dec 13CHA 95 @ CHI 109Picked CHI 66%Hit
- Jan 31CHI 117 @ CHA 110Picked CHI 65%Hit