Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaylen WellsPoints19
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists9
- GG JacksonRebounds11
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints41
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–117
- Q43.0GG Jackson out of bounds lost ball turnover110–117
- Q46.6Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2110–117
- Q46.6Timberwolves offensive team rebound110–116
- Q46.6Julius Randle misses free throw 1 of 2110–116
- Q46.6Cam Spencer personal take foul110–116
- Q46.6Julius Randle defensive rebound110–116
- Q48.7Cedric Coward misses 24-foot three point jumper110–116
- Q417.2Kyle Anderson enters the game for Rudy Gobert110–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:10Rayan Rupert makes 23-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)MEM 52 – 41 MIN · MEM 40% → 48% +8MEM 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q21:47Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MEM 54 – 50 MIN · MIN 61% → 69% +8MIN 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q311:16Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)MEM 65 – 59 MIN · MEM 31% → 39% +8MEM 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q310:05Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MEM 67 – 62 MIN · MIN 54% → 63% +9MIN 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q39:49Ty Jerome makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 70 – 62 MIN · MEM 37% → 46% +9MEM 37% → 46%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -14.5
- ML MEM +550 / MIN -800
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 71.3%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -578
- MEM +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 110.5 – 125.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | −3 | MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −8, Santi Aldama −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +158 Elo | MIN 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 83.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 82.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 119.14th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 114.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +4.67th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 115.49th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 111.09th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Pace | 102.610th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–18 | Road vs home | 20–118th of 30 |
| 25th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 148827th of 30 |
| 20th of 301460 | Elo rating | 156211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−34 Elo- Brandon Clarke strained right calf−8 Elo
- Santi Aldama right knee injury−1 Elo
Timberwolves
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–32 | 26–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 19–30 |
| Underdog | 17–23 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31 | 30–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 4–6 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Feb 2MIN 128 @ MEM 137Picked MIN 72%Miss
- Jan 31MIN 131 @ MEM 114Picked MIN 80%Hit
- Dec 17MEM 116 @ MIN 110Picked MIN 70%Miss
- Apr 10MIN 141 @ MEM 125Picked MIN 54%Hit
- Jan 20MIN 106 @ MEM 108Picked MEM 64%Hit
- Jan 11MEM 127 @ MIN 125Picked MIN 54%Miss
- Feb 28MEM 101 @ MIN 110Picked MIN 73%Hit
- Jan 18MEM 103 @ MIN 118Picked MIN 70%Hit