Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints31
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Clippers- Derrick Jones Jr.Points18
- Kris DunnAssists7
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–88
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–88
- Q410.1Derrick Jones Jr. bad pass
turnover (Ayo Dosunmu steals)94–88
- Q412.1Clippers Full timeout94–88
- Q412.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 294–88
- Q412.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 293–88
- Q412.1Derrick Jones Jr. personal take foul92–88
- Q415.1Julius Randle enters the game for Rudy Gobert92–88
- Q415.1Bennedict Mathurin personal take foul92–88
- Q416.7Jaden McDaniels offensive rebound92–88
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:24Derrick Jones Jr. makes running layup (Kris Dunn assists)MIN 85 – 84 LAC · LAC 20% → 35% +15LAC 20% → 35%+15 pts
- Q41:36Bennedict Mathurin makes two point shotMIN 87 – 86 LAC · LAC 16% → 34% +18LAC 16% → 34%+18 pts
- Q41:18Anthony Edwards makes 11-foot jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 89 – 86 LAC · MIN 66% → 85% +19MIN 66% → 85%+19 pts
- Q41:05Derrick Jones Jr. makes 4-foot two point shot (Kris Dunn assists)MIN 89 – 88 LAC · LAC 13% → 33% +20LAC 13% → 33%+20 pts
- Q442.9Anthony Edwards makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 92 – 88 LAC · MIN 69% → 96% +27MIN 69% → 96%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -8.5
- ML MIN -345 / LAC +275
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.2%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -291
- LAC +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 114.5 – 106.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | −132 | MIN: Usual rotation · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +72 Elo | MIN 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 74.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.6 | Points scored | 112.126th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 112.69th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −0.518th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 114.320th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.8 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 14–1215th of 30 |
| 29th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 12th of 301540 | Elo rating | 15679th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−132 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–34 | 29–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–29 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–2 LAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Feb 8LAC 115 @ MIN 96Picked MIN 75%Miss
- Dec 6LAC 106 @ MIN 109Picked MIN 76%Hit
- Jan 6LAC 106 @ MIN 108Picked MIN 55%Hit
- Dec 4MIN 108 @ LAC 80Picked MIN 63%Hit
- Nov 29LAC 92 @ MIN 93Picked MIN 69%Hit
- Mar 12MIN 118 @ LAC 100Picked LAC 59%Miss
- Mar 3LAC 89 @ MIN 88Picked MIN 60%Miss
- Feb 12MIN 121 @ LAC 100Picked LAC 61%Miss