Memphis Grizzlies at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Taylor HendricksPoints19
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists14
- GG JacksonRebounds9
Pacers- Jarace WalkerPoints21
- Kam JonesAssists10
- Micah PotterRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–106
- Q417.9Micah Potter makes free throw 2 of 2125–106
- Q417.9Micah Potter makes free throw 1 of 2125–105
- Q417.9Javon Small shooting foul125–104
- Q419.2Micah Potter offensive rebound125–104
- Q422.5Jay Huff misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot125–104
- Q440.8Cam Spencer makes 8-foot two point shot125–104
- Q453.7Kam Jones makes driving layup123–104
- Q41:04Javon Small makes driving layup123–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:24Jarace Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Taelon Peter assists)MEM 77 – 72 IND · IND 25% → 34% +8IND 25% → 34%+8 pts
- Q35:38Micah Potter makes 24-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)MEM 81 – 75 IND · IND 22% → 30% +8IND 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q410:33Jarace Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Taelon Peter assists)MEM 93 – 88 IND · IND 19% → 29% +10IND 19% → 29%+10 pts
- Q410:13Jaylen Wells makes 23-foot three point jumper (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)MEM 96 – 88 IND · MEM 72% → 82% +10MEM 72% → 82%+10 pts
- Q46:12Jarace Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)MEM 104 – 99 IND · IND 12% → 23% +11IND 12% → 23%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- IND -1.5
- ML MEM -112 / IND -108
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MEM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- MEM: Elo 49.7%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- MEM -102
- IND +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 117.5 – 119.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −88 | −70 | MEM: Missing Ty Jerome −43, Cedric Coward −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · IND: Missing Pascal Siakam −37 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +2 Elo | IND 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 55.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 111.528th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 119.525th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −8.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 107.930th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 115.623rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.6 | Pace | 102.89th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 10–2128th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301444 | Elo rating | 138026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−88 Elo- Ty Jerome left thigh contusion−43 Elo
- Cedric Coward right knee injury−18 Elo
Pacers
−70 Elo- Pascal Siakam sprained left wrist−37 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–32 | 28–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 16–23 | 25–26 |
| Overs–unders | 28–30 | 27–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–2 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.