Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints33
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Moussa DiabateRebounds11
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints20
- Andrew NembhardAssists7
- Jarace WalkerRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–109
- Q49.8shot clock turnover133–109
- Q432.0Tre Mann defensive rebound133–109
- Q434.8Quenton Jackson misses driving floating jump shot133–109
- Q442.2Micah Potter defensive rebound133–109
- Q444.4Jay Huff blocks Sion James 's 2-foot two point shot133–109
- Q445.1Sion James offensive rebound133–109
- Q448.7Sion James misses 25-foot three point jumper133–109
- Q41:08Jay Huff bad pass
turnover (Pat Connaughton steals)133–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:56Andrew Nembhard makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 7 – 14 IND · IND 24% → 29% +5IND 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q13:19Jarace Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)CHA 21 – 26 IND · IND 22% → 27% +5IND 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q12:26Kon Knueppel makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHA 24 – 26 IND · CHA 72% → 78% +6CHA 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q211:40Kam Jones makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 31 – 37 IND · IND 25% → 31% +6IND 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q211:21LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 34 – 37 IND · CHA 68% → 75% +6CHA 68% → 75%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -12.5
- ML CHA -675 / IND +490
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -8.5
- CHA 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CHA: Elo 79.5%, market 83.7%
- Fair odds
- CHA -514
- IND +514 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 121.0 – 108.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +56 | −63 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Pascal Siakam −35 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +235 Elo | CHA 79.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 83.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 111.528th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 119.225th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.4 | Margin | −7.726th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 107.830th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 102.99th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 10–2028th of 30 |
| 25th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 30 |
| 11th of 301550 | Elo rating | 138624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−63 Elo- Pascal Siakam sprained left wrist−35 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–22 | 28–31 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–6 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 26–16 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders | 23–36 | 26–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 4–5 IND in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Jan 8IND 114 @ CHA 112Picked CHA 62%Miss
- Nov 19CHA 118 @ IND 127Picked CHA 54%Miss
- Apr 2CHA 105 @ IND 119Picked IND 86%Hit
- Dec 8CHA 113 @ IND 109Picked IND 84%Miss
- Nov 8IND 83 @ CHA 103Picked IND 70%Miss
- Feb 12IND 102 @ CHA 111Picked IND 71%Miss
- Feb 4IND 115 @ CHA 99Picked IND 75%Hit
- Dec 20CHA 113 @ IND 144Picked IND 71%Hit