Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints21
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–108
- Q412.5Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Rudy Gobert117–108
- Q412.5shot clock turnover117–108
- Q437.3Zeke Nnaji makes driving dunk (Jalen Pickett assists)117–108
- Q445.6Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound117–106
- Q446.9Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot117–106
- Q41:02Rudy Gobert defensive rebound117–106
- Q41:04Zeke Nnaji misses 26-foot three point jumper117–106
- Q41:16Jalen Pickett defensive rebound117–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:20Ayo Dosunmu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 51 – 46 DEN · MIN 51% → 60% +8MIN 51% → 60%+8 pts
- Q255.3Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 54 – 48 DEN · MIN 54% → 62% +8MIN 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q37:51Nikola Jokic makes 27-foot three pointerMIN 70 – 63 DEN · DEN 24% → 32% +8DEN 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q37:04Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 73 – 65 DEN · MIN 62% → 71% +9MIN 62% → 71%+9 pts
- Q48:59Naz Reid makes 27-foot three pointer (Bones Hyland assists)MIN 99 – 89 DEN · MIN 78% → 87% +9MIN 78% → 87%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML MIN +120 / DEN -142
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6
- DEN 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +16.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 72.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 119.0 – 121.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +60 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +170 Elo | DEN 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 120.51st of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 115.918th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +4.67th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 119.31st of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 114.821st of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.7 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 16–1113th of 30 |
| 29th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149027th of 30 |
| 11th of 301546 | Elo rating | 16126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–35 | 34–26 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–30 | 20–19 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–30 | 37–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–8 DEN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.
- Dec 25MIN 138 @ DEN 142Picked MIN 51%Miss
- Nov 15DEN 123 @ MIN 112Picked DEN 52%Hit
- Oct 27DEN 127 @ MIN 114Picked DEN 67%Hit
- Apr 1MIN 140 @ DEN 139Picked DEN 53%Miss
- Mar 12MIN 115 @ DEN 95Picked DEN 53%Miss
- Jan 25DEN 104 @ MIN 133Picked DEN 59%Miss
- Nov 1DEN 116 @ MIN 119Picked MIN 59%Hit
- May 19MIN 98 @ DEN 90PlayoffsPicked DEN 52%Miss