Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints39
- Nikola JokicAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds17
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints36
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds21
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game121–127
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime121–127
- OT2.0Christian Braun bad pass
turnover (Chet Holmgren steals)121–127
- OT3.6Jaylin Williams makes free throw 2 of 2121–127
- OT3.6Jaylin Williams makes free throw 1 of 2121–126
- OT3.6Jamal Murray personal foul121–125
- OT4.9Thunder Full timeout121–125
- OT5.5Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three pointer121–125
- OT14.2Cason Wallace makes free throw 2 of 2118–125
- OT14.2Cason Wallace makes free throw 1 of 2118–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:15Christian Braun makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 105 – 99 OKC · DEN 68% → 86% +18DEN 68% → 86%+18 pts
- Q42:01Alex Caruso makes 22-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)DEN 105 – 104 OKC · OKC 18% → 44% +26OKC 18% → 44%+26 pts
- Q41:23Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DEN 105 – 107 OKC · OKC 41% → 76% +35OKC 41% → 76%+35 pts
- Q438.0Nikola Jokic makes 3-foot two point shotDEN 107 – 107 OKC · DEN 17% → 48% +31DEN 17% → 48%+31 pts
- OT2:34Isaiah Joe makes 22-foot running jump shot (Cason Wallace assists)DEN 107 – 112 OKC · OKC 71% → 89% +18OKC 71% → 89%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -6.5
- ML DEN +205 / OKC -250
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4
- OKC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 64.8%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -218
- DEN +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.0 – 120.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1617 | 1695 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | +9 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +106 Elo | OKC 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 72.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.5 | Points scored | 119.34th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 108.02nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 117.04th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 105.91st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.7 | Pace | 101.019th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–11 | Road vs home | 24–61st of 30 |
| 29th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149125th of 30 |
| 7th of 301617 | Elo rating | 16951st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–26 | 31–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–19 | 28–28 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 36–23 | 33–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–10 OKC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.
- Feb 1OKC 121 @ DEN 111Picked OKC 67%Hit
- May 18DEN 93 @ OKC 125PlayoffsPicked OKC 73%Hit
- May 15OKC 107 @ DEN 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 64%Miss
- May 13DEN 105 @ OKC 112PlayoffsPicked OKC 79%Hit
- May 11OKC 92 @ DEN 87PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Hit
- May 9OKC 104 @ DEN 113PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Miss
- May 7DEN 106 @ OKC 149PlayoffsPicked OKC 78%Hit
- May 5DEN 121 @ OKC 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 79%Miss