Portland Trail Blazers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jrue HolidayPoints25
- Jrue HolidayAssists4
- Donovan ClinganRebounds8
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints26
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Moussa DiabateRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–109
- Q416.9Blake Wesley bad pass
turnover (Sion James steals)93–109
- Q425.8Pat Connaughton out of bounds bad pass turnover93–109
- Q443.4Kris Murray out of bounds lost ball turnover93–109
- Q443.4Kris Murray offensive rebound93–109
- Q445.5Yang Hansen misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot93–109
- Q459.1Ryan Kalkbrenner makes alley oop dunk (Tre Mann assists)93–109
- Q41:16Javonte Cooke enters the game for Toumani Camara93–107
- Q41:16Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Brandon Miller93–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:02Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three pointer (LaMelo Ball assists)POR 37 – 45 CHA · CHA 77% → 83% +6CHA 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q326.9Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 67 – 74 CHA · POR 10% → 16% +6POR 10% → 16%+6 pts
- Q411:42LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three pointer (Grant Williams assists)POR 67 – 77 CHA · CHA 84% → 91% +6CHA 84% → 91%+6 pts
- Q49:40Kon Knueppel makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 71 – 82 CHA · CHA 88% → 93% +6CHA 88% → 93%+6 pts
- Q48:01Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)POR 77 – 87 CHA · CHA 87% → 93% +7CHA 87% → 93%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -6.5
- ML POR +220 / CHA -270
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -6.5
- CHA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- CHA: Elo 74.0%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- CHA -234
- POR +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 111.0 – 117.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +60 | POR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +182 Elo | CHA 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 66.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 116.212th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.2 | Points allowed | 113.410th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.4 | Margin | +2.810th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 115.87th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 113.017th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.5 | Pace | 99.822nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 12–1623rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 30 |
| 21st of 301464 | Elo rating | 155710th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–27 | 38–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 13–11 | 12–6 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders | 33–27 | 24–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–1 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.