Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jrue HolidayPoints23
- Donovan ClinganAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds15
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints25
- Jalen JohnsonAssists8
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–135
- Q41.1shot clock turnover101–135
- Q423.0Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound101–135
- Q423.9Javonte Cooke misses tip shot101–135
- Q423.9Javonte Cooke offensive rebound101–135
- Q428.3Sidy Cissoko misses running layup101–135
- Q433.8Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound101–135
- Q438.3Mouhamed Gueye misses 22-foot three point jumper101–135
- Q444.1Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound101–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:37Onyeka Okongwu makes 24-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)POR 2 – 7 ATL · ATL 70% → 76% +5ATL 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q110:23Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three pointer (Jerami Grant assists)POR 5 – 7 ATL · POR 24% → 30% +5POR 24% → 30%+5 pts
- Q110:02Onyeka Okongwu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)POR 5 – 10 ATL · ATL 70% → 76% +5ATL 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q19:24Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three pointer (Donovan Clingan assists)POR 10 – 10 ATL · POR 28% → 34% +6POR 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q19:03Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three pointerPOR 13 – 10 ATL · POR 34% → 40% +6POR 34% → 40%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -6.5
- ML POR +190 / ATL -230
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 67.8%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -202
- POR +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 114.5 – 121.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −21 | −1 | POR: Missing Deni Avdija −20, Robert Williams III −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +129 Elo | ATL 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 117.110th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 117.621st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.6 | Margin | −0.518th of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 112.417th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 13–1621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301457 | Elo rating | 149018th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−21 Elo- Deni Avdija back−20 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee−17 Elo
Hawks
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–28 | 30–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–11 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 33–28 | 29–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 4–1 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.