LA Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints28
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds12
Grizzlies- Ty JeromePoints23
- Ty JeromeAssists7
- Cedric CowardRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–120
- Q42.3Cam Spencer offensive rebound123–120
- Q42.3Ty Jerome misses 24-foot fade away jump shot123–120
- Q44.4Cam Spencer enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper123–120
- Q44.4Ty Jerome enters the game for Jahmai Mashack123–120
- Q44.4Grizzlies Full timeout123–120
- Q44.4Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2123–120
- Q44.4Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Ty Jerome122–120
- Q44.4Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2122–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:05Taylor Hendricks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)LAC 108 – 109 MEM · MEM 31% → 47% +17MEM 31% → 47%+17 pts
- Q43:43Cedric Coward makes 24-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)LAC 114 – 114 MEM · MEM 23% → 43% +20MEM 23% → 43%+20 pts
- Q43:19Darius Garland makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 117 – 114 MEM · LAC 56% → 77% +21LAC 56% → 77%+21 pts
- Q42:13Walter Clayton Jr. makes two point shot (Javon Small assists)LAC 117 – 118 MEM · MEM 36% → 55% +19MEM 36% → 55%+19 pts
- Q430.2Ty Jerome makes driving layupLAC 121 – 120 MEM · MEM 6% → 28% +23MEM 6% → 28%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -7.5
- ML LAC -305 / MEM +245
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- LAC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 58.3%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- LAC -260
- MEM +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 118.5 – 111.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −12 | −12 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +58 Elo | LAC 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 63.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 115.614th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 117.723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.120th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 111.323rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 113.318th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3014–19 | Road vs home | 11–1824th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 30 |
| 8th of 301583 | Elo rating | 144920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−12 Elo- Brandon Clarke right calf strain−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–28 | 29–32 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 20–12 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders | 33–29 | 29–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 6–4 MEM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Dec 15MEM 121 @ LAC 103Picked LAC 66%Miss
- Dec 5LAC 98 @ MEM 107Picked LAC 55%Miss
- Nov 28MEM 112 @ LAC 107Picked LAC 69%Miss
- Mar 21MEM 108 @ LAC 128Picked LAC 69%Hit
- Feb 12MEM 114 @ LAC 128Picked LAC 68%Hit
- Dec 23LAC 114 @ MEM 110Picked MEM 68%Miss
- Feb 23LAC 101 @ MEM 95Picked LAC 60%Hit
- Jan 12LAC 128 @ MEM 119Picked LAC 63%Hit