New Orleans Pelicans at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jeremiah FearsPoints28
- Dejounte MurrayAssists5
- Yves MissiRebounds8
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints23
- Jordan MillerAssists8
- Brook LopezRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–137
- Q48.6Clippers defensive team rebound117–137
- Q48.6Micah Peavy misses 7-foot two point shot117–137
- Q426.7Isaiah Jackson makes 3-foot dunk (Jordan Miller assists)117–137
- Q437.3Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 1 of 1117–135
- Q437.3Isaiah Jackson shooting foul116–135
- Q437.3Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup (Derik Queen assists)116–135
- Q442.0Cam Christie makes 1-foot running dunk (Kobe Sanders assists)114–135
- Q445.2Jeremiah Fears bad pass
turnover (Cam Christie steals)114–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:38Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point jumper (DeAndre Jordan assists)NO 73 – 76 LAC · NO 18% → 25% +7NO 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q310:46Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)NO 73 – 79 LAC · LAC 75% → 82% +7LAC 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q38:39Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot running jump shot (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 80 – 85 LAC · NO 14% → 21% +6NO 14% → 21%+6 pts
- Q36:22Brook Lopez makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)NO 84 – 88 LAC · LAC 69% → 77% +8LAC 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q34:34Brook Lopez makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)NO 86 – 95 LAC · LAC 82% → 88% +6LAC 82% → 88%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -8.5
- ML NO +270 / LAC -340
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7.5
- LAC 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 77.6%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -286
- NO +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 107.0 – 115.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −18 | −49 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +216 Elo | LAC 77.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 70.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 111.727th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 112.29th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.0 | Margin | −0.619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 113.412th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 114.019th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.2 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–21 | Road vs home | 14–1315th of 30 |
| 11th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301391 | Elo rating | 156211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–28 | 30–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 25–25 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 30–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 4–4 LAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Oct 31NO 124 @ LAC 126Picked LAC 82%Hit
- Apr 2NO 98 @ LAC 114Picked LAC 91%Hit
- Mar 11LAC 120 @ NO 127Picked LAC 72%Miss
- Dec 30LAC 116 @ NO 113Picked LAC 62%Hit
- Mar 15LAC 104 @ NO 112Picked NO 67%Hit
- Feb 7NO 117 @ LAC 106Picked LAC 66%Miss
- Jan 5LAC 111 @ NO 95Picked NO 55%Miss
- Nov 24NO 116 @ LAC 106Picked LAC 52%Miss