New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Saddiq BeyPoints42
- Dejounte MurrayAssists9
- Derik QueenRebounds7
Jazz- Ace BaileyPoints23
- Isaiah CollierAssists7
- Kevin LoveRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–118
- Q420.0Jeremiah Fears enters the game for Dejounte Murray129–118
- Q420.0Jazz Full timeout129–118
- Q420.0Brice Sensabaugh out of bounds bad pass turnover129–118
- Q431.6Saddiq Bey makes two point shot (Zion Williamson assists)129–118
- Q445.3Dejounte Murray defensive rebound127–118
- Q447.8Karlo Matkovic blocks Elijah Harkless 's 4-foot driving layup127–118
- Q455.9Saddiq Bey makes driving layup (Zion Williamson assists)127–118
- Q41:14Zion Williamson defensive rebound125–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:31Svi Mykhailiuk makes 22-foot three point jumper (Blake Hinson assists)NO 29 – 35 UTAH · UTAH 41% → 48% +7UTAH 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q11:15Jeremiah Fears makes 30-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)NO 32 – 35 UTAH · NO 52% → 59% +7NO 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q14.7Kevin Love makes 23-foot three point jumper (Elijah Harkless assists)NO 37 – 38 UTAH · UTAH 30% → 37% +7UTAH 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q210:28Svi Mykhailiuk makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Brice Sensabaugh assists)NO 41 – 41 UTAH · UTAH 28% → 35% +7UTAH 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q26:25Kyle Filipowski makes 23-foot three point jumperNO 55 – 50 UTAH · UTAH 19% → 25% +6UTAH 19% → 25%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NO -6.5
- ML NO -238 / UTAH +195
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2
- NO 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- NO: Elo 57.8%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- NO -208
- UTAH +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 126.0 – 119.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1373 | 1337 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −37 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +54 Elo | NO 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 61.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 125.930th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.6 | Margin | −7.926th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 112.120th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 119.630th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.1 | Pace | 104.03rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 306–21 | Road vs home | 11–1825th of 30 |
| 5th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15133rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301373 | Elo rating | 133728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–28 | 31–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 25–25 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 5–2 UTAH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.