New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Saddiq BeyPoints24
- Herbert JonesAssists7
- Jeremiah FearsRebounds11
Jazz- Isaiah CollierPoints21
- Isaiah CollierAssists7
- Ace BaileyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–105
- Q41.5Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound115–105
- Q41.5Brice Sensabaugh misses 13-foot jumper115–105
- Q42.2Brice Sensabaugh offensive rebound115–105
- Q45.0Elijah Harkless misses 21-foot step back jumpshot115–105
- Q415.6Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound115–105
- Q418.8Jordan Hawkins misses 25-foot three point jumper115–105
- Q429.7Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)115–105
- Q430.7Ace Bailey offensive rebound115–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:01Saddiq Bey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bryce McGowens assists)NO 4 – 0 UTAH · NO 68% → 73% +5NO 68% → 73%+5 pts
- Q14:23John Konchar makes 22-foot running jump shot (Keyonte George assists)NO 17 – 17 UTAH · UTAH 29% → 35% +6UTAH 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q11:24Kevin Love makes 26-foot three point jumper (Elijah Harkless assists)NO 23 – 22 UTAH · UTAH 28% → 34% +6UTAH 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q24:39Bryce McGowens makes 28-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)NO 48 – 38 UTAH · NO 78% → 84% +5NO 78% → 84%+5 pts
- Q49:00Bryce McGowens makes 26-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)NO 92 – 82 UTAH · NO 85% → 92% +7NO 85% → 92%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NO -5.5
- ML NO -218 / UTAH +180
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2
- NO 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- NO: Elo 57.0%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- NO -192
- UTAH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 125.0 – 119.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1328 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | −28 | NO: Usual rotation · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +49 Elo | NO 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 125.930th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.3 | Margin | −7.926th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 119.730th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.2 | Pace | 104.03rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 307–21 | Road vs home | 11–1925th of 30 |
| 5th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15104th of 30 |
| 24th of 301382 | Elo rating | 132828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–28 | 31–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–3 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 25–25 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders | 31–29 | 35–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 6–2 UTAH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Feb 26NO 129 @ UTAH 118Picked NO 68%Hit
- Mar 2NO 128 @ UTAH 121Picked NO 72%Hit
- Jan 20UTAH 119 @ NO 123Picked NO 82%Hit
- Jan 17UTAH 123 @ NO 136Picked NO 84%Hit
- Jan 23UTAH 124 @ NO 153Picked NO 55%Hit
- Dec 28UTAH 105 @ NO 112Picked NO 66%Hit
- Nov 27NO 112 @ UTAH 114Picked NO 61%Miss
- Nov 25NO 100 @ UTAH 105Picked NO 59%Miss