Indiana Pacers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints29
- Jarace WalkerAssists5
- Micah PotterRebounds6
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints29
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–130
- Q48.8Norchad Omier offensive rebound107–130
- Q411.5TyTy Washington Jr. misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot107–130
- Q434.7Ben Sheppard makes 2-foot running dunk (Kobe Brown assists)107–130
- Q438.3TyTy Washington Jr. bad pass
turnover (Kobe Brown steals)105–130
- Q440.7Clippers offensive team rebound105–130
- Q441.2Cam Christie misses driving layup105–130
- Q450.8Norchad Omier defensive rebound105–130
- Q453.1Ben Sheppard misses layup105–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:37Kawhi Leonard makes 27-foot three pointerIND 4 – 5 LAC · LAC 80% → 84% +4LAC 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q19:53Kobe Sanders makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)IND 6 – 8 LAC · LAC 81% → 85% +4LAC 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q16:39Kawhi Leonard makes 27-foot three pointer (Kris Dunn assists)IND 15 – 19 LAC · LAC 83% → 87% +4LAC 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q310:52Jay Huff makes 26-foot running jump shot (Jarace Walker assists)IND 57 – 63 LAC · IND 9% → 13% +4IND 9% → 13%+4 pts
- Q38:19Kris Dunn makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)IND 60 – 70 LAC · LAC 88% → 92% +4LAC 88% → 92%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -11.5
- ML IND +470 / LAC -650
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -9.5
- LAC 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 82.6%, market 83.2%
- Fair odds
- LAC -494
- IND +494 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 109.5 – 121.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | −19 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +271 Elo | LAC 82.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 82.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 82.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 83.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 112.126th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.6 | Points allowed | 112.19th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.2 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 113.919th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.7 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–24 | Road vs home | 15–1315th of 30 |
| 14th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 26th of 301364 | Elo rating | 15819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–33 | 32–28 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 25–26 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–34 | 31–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 3–1 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.