LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints23
- Kris DunnAssists7
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserRebounds9
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints22
- Draymond GreenAssists6
- Gui SantosRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–101
- Q49.8Quinten Post makes 1-foot dunk (Pat Spencer assists)114–101
- Q424.7Jordan Miller makes free throw 2 of 2114–99
- Q424.7Jordan Miller makes free throw 1 of 2113–99
- Q424.7Nate Williams shooting foul112–99
- Q426.0Clippers offensive team rebound112–99
- Q426.2Quinten Post blocks Cam Christie 's 2-foot dunk112–99
- Q446.5Nate Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Quinten Post assists)112–99
- Q457.2Bennedict Mathurin makes driving layup112–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:55Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)LAC 70 – 76 GS · GS 61% → 72% +11GS 61% → 72%+11 pts
- Q411:36Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Darius Garland assists)LAC 80 – 79 GS · LAC 42% → 54% +13LAC 42% → 54%+13 pts
- Q48:03Pat Spencer makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)LAC 88 – 86 GS · GS 26% → 40% +14GS 26% → 40%+14 pts
- Q47:39Jordan Miller makes driving layupLAC 90 – 86 GS · LAC 60% → 70% +10LAC 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q46:37Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)LAC 95 – 89 GS · GS 10% → 20% +10GS 10% → 20%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -1.5
- ML LAC -112 / GS -108
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -0.5
- LAC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 48.0%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- LAC -102
- GS +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 109.0 – 107.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −21 | −51 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −28 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +14 Elo | GS 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 115.616th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 114.111th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 113.214th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.9 | Pace | 101.715th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 19–1211th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 9th of 301568 | Elo rating | 153612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−51 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis illness−28 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–28 | 27–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 19–22 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 31–28 | 36–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 8–2 GS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Jan 5GS 102 @ LAC 103Picked GS 59%Miss
- Oct 28LAC 79 @ GS 98Picked LAC 51%Miss
- Apr 13LAC 124 @ GS 119Picked GS 60%Miss
- Dec 27GS 92 @ LAC 102Picked LAC 65%Hit
- Nov 18GS 99 @ LAC 102Picked GS 65%Miss
- Oct 27LAC 112 @ GS 104Picked GS 76%Miss
- Feb 14LAC 130 @ GS 125Picked GS 55%Miss
- Dec 14GS 113 @ LAC 121Picked LAC 63%Hit