Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints26
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Warriors- Gui SantosPoints14
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists6
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–101
- Q415.2Malevy Leons makes driving layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)129–101
- Q425.3Kobe Bufkin makes 8-foot two point shot129–99
- Q439.2Quinten Post makes two point shot127–99
- Q440.2Quinten Post offensive rebound127–97
- Q440.2Dalton Knecht blocks Quinten Post's layup127–97
- Q451.6Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound127–97
- Q454.7Jake LaRavia misses 24-foot three point jumper127–97
- Q41:03Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound127–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:26Marcus Smart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 5 – 2 GS · LAL 60% → 66% +6LAL 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q19:38LeBron James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 8 – 2 GS · LAL 66% → 71% +6LAL 66% → 71%+6 pts
- Q17:36Moses Moody makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)LAL 10 – 5 GS · GS 25% → 30% +5GS 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q15:33Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 17 – 5 GS · LAL 77% → 82% +5LAL 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q15:06LeBron James makes 26-foot three point jumperLAL 20 – 7 GS · LAL 79% → 83% +5LAL 79% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -3.5
- ML LAL -166 / GS +140
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -0.5
- LAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- LAL: Elo 52.6%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- LAL -150
- GS +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 114.5 – 111.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +55 | −50 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −25 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +18 Elo | LAL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 115.813th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 113.811th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +2.012th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 113.314th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 111.410th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.815th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 19–119th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 155611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−50 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis illness−25 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–28 | 27–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–13 | 19–22 |
| Underdog | 8–15 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 31–27 | 35–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 5–5 GS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Feb 7GS 99 @ LAL 105Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Oct 21GS 119 @ LAL 109Picked GS 58%Hit
- Apr 3GS 123 @ LAL 116Picked LAL 50%Miss
- Feb 6GS 112 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 62%Hit
- Jan 25LAL 118 @ GS 108Picked LAL 51%Hit
- Dec 25LAL 115 @ GS 113Picked GS 61%Miss
- Apr 9GS 134 @ LAL 120Picked GS 52%Hit
- Mar 16GS 128 @ LAL 121Picked LAL 61%Miss