Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints41
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints28
- Grayson AllenAssists6
- Mark WilliamsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–113
- Q40.0Lakers offensive team rebound110–113
- Q40.0Austin Reaves misses 23-foot three point jumper110–113
- Q40.9Suns Full timeout110–113
- Q40.9Maxi Kleber enters the game for Jake LaRavia110–113
- Q40.9Ryan Dunn enters the game for Jalen Green110–113
- Q40.9Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Amir Coffey110–113
- Q40.9Lakers Full timeout110–113
- Q41.7Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)110–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:34Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three pointer (Royce O'Neale assists)LAL 101 – 106 PHX · PHX 64% → 85% +21PHX 64% → 85%+21 pts
- Q41:00Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)LAL 108 – 108 PHX · LAL 15% → 52% +37LAL 15% → 52%+37 pts
- Q435.4Royce O'Neale makes two point shotLAL 108 – 110 PHX · PHX 48% → 81% +33PHX 48% → 81%+33 pts
- Q422.7LeBron James makes tip shotLAL 110 – 110 PHX · LAL 13% → 51% +39LAL 13% → 51%+39 pts
- Q41.7Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)LAL 110 – 113 PHX · PHX 50% → >99% +50PHX 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML LAL -218 / PHX +180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2
- LAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- LAL: Elo 57.1%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- LAL -192
- PHX +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 114.5 – 109.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +53 | −42 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +50 Elo | LAL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 60.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 112.125th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 111.45th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.715th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 112.021st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.4 | Pace | 99.525th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–11 | Road vs home | 19–1211th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15124th of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–27 | 35–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 22–12 | 18–10 |
| Underdog | 8–15 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 31–26 | 25–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 6–6 PHX in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- Dec 23LAL 108 @ PHX 132Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Dec 14LAL 116 @ PHX 114Picked PHX 51%Miss
- Dec 1PHX 125 @ LAL 108Picked LAL 66%Miss
- Mar 16PHX 96 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 57%Hit
- Nov 26LAL 100 @ PHX 127Picked PHX 56%Hit
- Oct 28LAL 105 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 60%Hit
- Oct 25PHX 116 @ LAL 123Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Feb 25LAL 113 @ PHX 123Picked PHX 53%Hit