LA Clippers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints30
- Jordan MillerAssists6
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds9
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints27
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–116
- Q40.1Clippers offensive team rebound112–116
- Q40.1Bennedict Mathurin misses 34-foot three point pullup jump shot112–116
- Q41.4Stephon Castle makes two point shot112–116
- Q43.2Stephon Castle offensive rebound112–114
- Q46.1Stephon Castle misses free throw 2 of 2112–114
- Q46.1Stephon Castle makes free throw 1 of 2112–114
- Q46.1Kawhi Leonard personal take foul112–113
- Q48.3Julian Champagnie offensive rebound112–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:28Carter Bryant makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)LAC 103 – 106 SA · SA 56% → 77% +21SA 56% → 77%+21 pts
- Q41:53Brook Lopez makes 1-foot layup (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)LAC 107 – 108 SA · LAC 19% → 36% +17LAC 19% → 36%+17 pts
- Q41:08Victor Wembanyama makes 28-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)LAC 109 – 111 SA · SA 40% → 78% +38SA 40% → 78%+38 pts
- Q452.3Derrick Jones Jr. makes driving layup (Brook Lopez assists)LAC 111 – 111 SA · LAC 20% → 47% +27LAC 20% → 47%+27 pts
- Q416.0Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot running dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)LAC 112 – 113 SA · SA 26% → 77% +51SA 26% → 77%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SA -7.5
- ML LAC +225 / SA -278
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5.5
- SA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- SA: Elo 70.8%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- SA -239
- LAC +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 107.0 – 114.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1629 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −40 | +51 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +154 Elo | SA 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 73.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 111.67th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +6.65th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 115.67th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 109.23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 102.013th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 22–62nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 7th of 301586 | Elo rating | 16295th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–28 | 37–26 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 24–20 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 32–29 | 25–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 6–1 SA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.