Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists15
- Isaiah StewartRebounds8
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points19
- Ben SarafAssists6
- Danny WolfRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–100
- Q41.6shot clock turnover138–100
- Q425.6shot clock turnover138–100
- Q450.5Tyson Etienne makes 27-foot three point jumper (Danny Wolf assists)138–100
- Q459.5Paul Reed makes free throw 2 of 2138–97
- Q459.5Pistons offensive team rebound137–97
- Q459.5Paul Reed misses free throw 1 of 2137–97
- Q459.5E.J. Liddell personal foul137–97
- Q41:07E.J. Liddell lost ball turnover (Daniss Jenkins steals)137–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:44Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 3 – 0 BKN · DET 88% → 91% +3DET 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q111:22Michael Porter Jr. makes 13-foot fade away jump shot (Noah Clowney assists)DET 3 – 2 BKN · BKN 9% → 11% +2BKN 9% → 11%+2 pts
- Q111:08Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Duncan Robinson assists)DET 6 – 2 BKN · DET 89% → 92% +3DET 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q110:44Michael Porter Jr. makes 18-foot pullup jump shotDET 6 – 4 BKN · BKN 9% → 10% +2BKN 9% → 10%+2 pts
- Q110:25Duncan Robinson makes two point shotDET 8 – 4 BKN · DET 90% → 91% +2DET 90% → 91%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DET -15.5
- ML DET -1100 / BKN +700
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -12
- DET 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- DET: Elo 87.6%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -733
- BKN +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 116.0 – 100.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1326 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +22 | −37 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +340 Elo | DET 87.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 87.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 87.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 107.230th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 115.616th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.9 | Margin | −8.427th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 108.229th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 116.727th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.527th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–10 | Road vs home | 9–2230th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15094th of 30 |
| 6th of 301602 | Elo rating | 132629th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–31 | 29–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 25–34 |
| Overs–unders | 26–37 | 30–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–4 BKN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Mar 7BKN 107 @ DET 105Picked DET 85%Miss
- Feb 1BKN 77 @ DET 130Picked DET 84%Hit
- Nov 7DET 125 @ BKN 107Picked DET 76%Hit
- Mar 1BKN 94 @ DET 115Picked DET 84%Hit
- Jan 8DET 113 @ BKN 98Picked DET 78%Hit
- Nov 3DET 106 @ BKN 92Picked BKN 58%Miss
- Apr 6DET 103 @ BKN 113Picked BKN 75%Hit
- Mar 7BKN 112 @ DET 118Picked BKN 52%Miss