Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Ronald Holland IIRebounds7
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints25
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–121
- Q40.7Trevor Keels defensive rebound110–121
- Q41.1Paul Reed misses 16-foot step back jumpshot110–121
- Q410.4Kasparas Jakucionis out of bounds lost ball turnover110–121
- Q410.7Vladislav Goldin defensive rebound110–121
- Q413.5Chaz Lanier misses driving layup110–121
- Q414.7Myron Gardner lost ball turnover (Paul Reed steals)110–121
- Q422.4Paul Reed vs. Myron Gardner (Chaz Lanier gains possession)110–121
- Q422.4Myron Gardner offensive rebound110–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:03Bam Adebayo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)DET 2 – 13 MIA · MIA 66% → 72% +6MIA 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q14:14Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three pointerDET 13 – 21 MIA · DET 27% → 33% +6DET 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q11:16Kasparas Jakucionis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)DET 15 – 30 MIA · MIA 75% → 81% +5MIA 75% → 81%+5 pts
- Q211:35Cade Cunningham makes 27-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)DET 19 – 34 MIA · DET 14% → 19% +5DET 14% → 19%+5 pts
- Q210:02Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 26 – 36 MIA · DET 22% → 28% +6DET 22% → 28%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- DET -1.5
- ML DET -115 / MIA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -0.5
- DET 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- DET: Elo 47.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 116.0 – 114.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +26 | +42 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +16 Elo | MIA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 120.12nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 116.620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.2 | Margin | +3.511th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 113.413th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.1 | Defense rating | 110.05th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.8 | Pace | 105.61st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–9 | Road vs home | 20–118th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 6th of 301613 | Elo rating | 153713th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–30 | 38–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–28 | 18–14 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–37 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–6 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Jan 1MIA 118 @ DET 112Picked DET 62%Miss
- Nov 29DET 138 @ MIA 135Picked MIA 61%Miss
- Mar 19DET 116 @ MIA 113Picked DET 61%Hit
- Dec 16MIA 124 @ DET 125Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 12MIA 121 @ DET 123Picked MIA 52%Miss
- Oct 28DET 98 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 75%Hit
- Mar 17MIA 104 @ DET 101Picked MIA 55%Hit
- Mar 15MIA 108 @ DET 95Picked MIA 60%Hit