Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints33
- Tyler HerroAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints27
- Brandon MillerAssists5
- Moussa DiabateRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–120
- Q40.0Bam Adebayo defensive rebound128–120
- Q40.0LaMelo Ball misses 13-foot pullup jump shot128–120
- Q47.0Dru Smith makes free throw 2 of 2128–120
- Q47.0Dru Smith makes free throw 1 of 2127–120
- Q47.0Sion James personal take foul126–120
- Q47.0Dru Smith defensive rebound126–120
- Q49.3Kon Knueppel misses 25-foot three point jumper126–120
- Q411.9Hornets offensive team rebound126–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:06Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 111 – 108 CHA · MIA 41% → 57% +16MIA 41% → 57%+16 pts
- Q45:05Grant Williams makes 22-foot running jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)MIA 115 – 111 CHA · CHA 18% → 33% +15CHA 18% → 33%+15 pts
- Q44:47Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 118 – 111 CHA · MIA 68% → 83% +15MIA 68% → 83%+15 pts
- Q43:11Kon Knueppel makes 24-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)MIA 120 – 117 CHA · CHA 14% → 32% +18CHA 14% → 32%+18 pts
- Q42:43Tyler Herro makes 12-foot step back jumpshotMIA 122 – 117 CHA · MIA 70% → 83% +13MIA 70% → 83%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -7.5
- ML MIA +240 / CHA -298
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -6.5
- CHA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- CHA: Elo 74.4%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- CHA -255
- MIA +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 111.0 – 118.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1599 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +34 | +65 | MIA: Missing Norman Powell −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +186 Elo | CHA 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.0 | Points scored | 116.111th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 112.310th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +3.810th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 115.95th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 112.114th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.6 | Pace | 99.723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 14–1620th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148729th of 30 |
| 14th of 301521 | Elo rating | 15998th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+34 Elo- Norman Powell right groin strain−16 Elo
Hornets
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–26 | 41–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 18–14 | 14–6 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 32–31 | 24–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 9–1 CHA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Nov 7CHA 108 @ MIA 126Picked MIA 69%Hit
- Oct 28CHA 117 @ MIA 144Picked MIA 61%Hit
- Mar 23CHA 105 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 71%Hit
- Mar 10CHA 105 @ MIA 102Picked MIA 77%Miss
- Nov 27MIA 98 @ CHA 94Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Oct 26MIA 114 @ CHA 106Picked MIA 69%Hit
- Jan 14CHA 87 @ MIA 104Picked MIA 72%Hit
- Dec 13CHA 104 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 70%Hit