Dallas Mavericks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Brandon WilliamsPoints18
- Ryan NembhardAssists4
- Khris MiddletonRebounds8
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints17
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Sion JamesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–117
- Q418.1shot clock turnover90–117
- Q437.6Grant Williams defensive rebound90–117
- Q443.2John Poulakidas misses 14-foot pullup jump shot90–117
- Q455.2Pat Connaughton makes free throw 2 of 290–117
- Q455.2Pat Connaughton makes free throw 1 of 290–116
- Q455.2AJ Johnson personal foul90–115
- Q41:10Ryan Nembhard makes free throw 2 of 290–115
- Q41:10Pat Connaughton enters the game for Tidjane Salaun89–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:25Josh Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)DAL 17 – 22 CHA · CHA 84% → 88% +4CHA 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q13:29Brandon Miller makes 28-foot three pointer (Grant Williams assists)DAL 19 – 25 CHA · CHA 86% → 89% +4CHA 86% → 89%+4 pts
- Q28:42P.J. Washington makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Poulakidas assists)DAL 33 – 33 CHA · DAL 16% → 21% +5DAL 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q27:19Josh Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)DAL 33 – 37 CHA · CHA 80% → 85% +5CHA 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q39:45LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)DAL 52 – 62 CHA · CHA 89% → 92% +4CHA 89% → 92%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -13.5
- ML DAL +490 / CHA -675
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -11
- CHA 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CHA: Elo 85.9%, market 83.7%
- Fair odds
- CHA -514
- DAL +514 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 106.5 – 120.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −51 | +41 | DAL: Missing Naji Marshall −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +314 Elo | CHA 85.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 83.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 84.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 83.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.9 | Points scored | 116.012th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 113.010th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.8 | Margin | +3.010th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 115.76th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.6 | Pace | 99.822nd of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–19 | Road vs home | 13–1622nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 148629th of 30 |
| 24th of 301389 | Elo rating | 156310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−51 Elo- Naji Marshall right finger−12 Elo
Hornets
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–33 | 39–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 13–6 |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders | 27–33 | 24–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–2 CHA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.