Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Cason WallaceAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Mavericks- Caleb MartinPoints18
- Ryan NembhardAssists5
- Moussa CisseRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–87
- Q415.1Thunder defensive team rebound100–87
- Q417.4Ryan Nembhard misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot100–87
- Q428.0Dwight Powell defensive rebound100–87
- Q430.8Jared McCain misses 23-foot three point jumper100–87
- Q447.7Isaiah Joe enters the game for Alex Caruso100–87
- Q447.7Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander100–87
- Q447.9Dwight Powell out of bounds bad pass turnover100–87
- Q450.2Dwight Powell offensive rebound100–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:12Caleb Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)OKC 2 – 5 DAL · DAL 11% → 15% +3DAL 11% → 15%+3 pts
- Q110:08Daniel Gafford makes 1-foot dunk (Khris Middleton assists)OKC 4 – 9 DAL · DAL 15% → 18% +3DAL 15% → 18%+3 pts
- Q19:56Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 13-foot fade away jump shotOKC 6 – 9 DAL · OKC 82% → 85% +3OKC 82% → 85%+3 pts
- Q16:44Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot running jump shot (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 19 – 13 DAL · OKC 90% → 93% +3OKC 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q22:44Max Christie makes 24-foot three point jumperOKC 54 – 47 DAL · DAL 5% → 8% +3DAL 5% → 8%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -16.5
- ML OKC -1200 / DAL +750
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -12
- OKC 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 87.1%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -785
- DAL +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 126.5 – 110.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1700 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −42 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Naji Marshall −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +332 Elo | OKC 87.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 87.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 87.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.5 | Points scored | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 118.023rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | −3.622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 109.426th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Defense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.1 | Pace | 103.65th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–8 | Road vs home | 14–1823rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149224th of 30 |
| 1st of 301700 | Elo rating | 139223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−42 Elo- Naji Marshall right finger−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–30 | 26–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–29 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 34–27 | 27–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 8–8 DAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.
- Dec 5DAL 111 @ OKC 132Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Oct 27OKC 101 @ DAL 94Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Jan 23DAL 121 @ OKC 115Picked OKC 83%Miss
- Jan 17OKC 98 @ DAL 106Picked OKC 57%Miss
- Dec 10DAL 104 @ OKC 118Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Nov 17DAL 121 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 72%Miss
- May 18OKC 116 @ DAL 117PlayoffsPicked DAL 51%Hit
- May 15DAL 104 @ OKC 92PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Miss