Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints20
- Coby WhiteAssists6
- Moussa DiabateRebounds9
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints29
- Jaylen BrownAssists7
- Jaylen BrownRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–89
- Q47.2shot clock turnover118–89
- Q420.4Sion James offensive rebound118–89
- Q423.7Tre Mann misses 33-foot three point jumper118–89
- Q447.1Antonio Reeves defensive rebound118–89
- Q450.2Xavier Tillman blocks Hugo Gonzalez 's 12-foot jumper118–89
- Q41:03Pat Connaughton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)118–89
- Q41:20Baylor Scheierman bad pass
turnover (Pat Connaughton steals)115–89
- Q41:35Jordan Walsh defensive rebound115–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:48Hugo Gonzalez makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)CHA 20 – 16 BOS · BOS 52% → 59% +7BOS 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q14:37Kon Knueppel makes 26-foot three pointer (Coby White assists)CHA 23 – 16 BOS · CHA 41% → 48% +7CHA 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q13:19Josh Green makes 29-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 26 – 16 BOS · CHA 49% → 56% +7CHA 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q11:03Hugo Gonzalez makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)CHA 32 – 21 BOS · BOS 34% → 41% +7BOS 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q19.3Coby White makes 29-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)CHA 35 – 23 BOS · CHA 55% → 62% +7CHA 55% → 62%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -6.5
- ML CHA +205 / BOS -250
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4.5
- BOS 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 67.0%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -218
- CHA +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 104.0 – 110.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1682 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +71 | +16 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +123 Elo | BOS 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 114.918th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 107.01st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +7.92nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 109.84th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.8 | Pace | 96.930th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 20–96th of 30 |
| 29th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 147830th of 30 |
| 10th of 301568 | Elo rating | 16822nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–22 | 36–25 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–6 | 26–19 |
| Underdog | 26–16 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 24–38 | 22–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–6 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.