Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints25
- Payton PritchardAssists9
- Hugo GonzalezRebounds16
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints19
- Myles TurnerAssists3
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–81
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–81
- Q45.9Thanasis Antetokounmpo personal foul108–81
- Q46.3Ron Harper Jr. defensive rebound108–81
- Q47.9Gary Trent Jr. misses 29-foot three point jumper108–81
- Q416.3shot clock turnover108–81
- Q440.4Gary Trent Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2108–81
- Q440.4Gary Trent Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2108–80
- Q440.4Max Shulga shooting foul108–79
- Q445.4Amari Williams bad pass
turnover (Gary Trent Jr. steals)108–79
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:28Ousmane Dieng makes 24-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)BOS 0 – 7 MIL · MIL 53% → 60% +6MIL 53% → 60%+6 pts
- Q19:04Sam Hauser makes 28-foot running jump shot (Derrick White assists)BOS 7 – 7 MIL · BOS 49% → 55% +6BOS 49% → 55%+6 pts
- Q18:22Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)BOS 10 – 7 MIL · BOS 55% → 61% +6BOS 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q15:36Ousmane Dieng makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)BOS 14 – 15 MIL · MIL 41% → 47% +7MIL 41% → 47%+7 pts
- Q14:40Ron Harper Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 19 – 15 MIL · BOS 57% → 64% +7BOS 57% → 64%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -2.5
- ML BOS -135 / MIL +114
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2.5
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 59.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -123
- MIL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 109.5 – 107.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1666 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIL and BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −50 | +55 | BOS: Missing Neemias Queta −22 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +63 Elo | BOS 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 111.827th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.4 | Points allowed | 115.717th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.6 | Margin | −3.823rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 111.821st of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 115.623rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.1 | Pace | 99.525th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 5th of 3020–11 | Road vs home | 14–1419th of 30 |
| 30th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301666 | Elo rating | 146220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−50 Elo- Neemias Queta rest−22 Elo
Bucks
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–25 | 27–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–19 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 22–38 | 25–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–3 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Feb 1MIL 79 @ BOS 107Picked BOS 83%Hit
- Dec 11BOS 101 @ MIL 116Picked BOS 77%Miss
- Dec 6MIL 105 @ BOS 111Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Nov 10BOS 113 @ MIL 107Picked BOS 64%Hit
- Oct 28MIL 108 @ BOS 119Picked BOS 77%Hit
- Apr 9BOS 91 @ MIL 104Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Mar 20MIL 119 @ BOS 122Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Jan 11BOS 102 @ MIL 135Picked BOS 53%Miss