Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Bobby PortisPoints18
- Ryan RollinsAssists7
- Jericho SimsRebounds11
Bulls- Collin SextonPoints22
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Josh GiddeyRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–120
- Q421.1Pete Nance bad pass
turnover (Yuki Kawamura steals)97–120
- Q437.3Leonard Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)97–120
- Q443.3Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound97–117
- Q444.9Ousmane Dieng misses driving floating jump shot97–117
- Q455.5Yuki Kawamura enters the game for Collin Sexton97–117
- Q455.5Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Isaac Okoro97–117
- Q455.5Leonard Miller enters the game for Matas Buzelis97–117
- Q455.5Collin Sexton personal foul97–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:09Guerschon Yabusele makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)MIL 73 – 71 CHI · CHI 31% → 40% +9CHI 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q35:09Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 76 – 72 CHI · MIL 57% → 66% +10MIL 57% → 66%+10 pts
- Q32:02Bobby Portis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)MIL 86 – 79 CHI · MIL 68% → 77% +10MIL 68% → 77%+10 pts
- Q411:04Collin Sexton makes 9-foot pullup jump shotMIL 89 – 91 CHI · CHI 48% → 56% +9CHI 48% → 56%+9 pts
- Q410:36Nick Richards makes layupMIL 89 – 93 CHI · CHI 56% → 65% +9CHI 56% → 65%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -2.5
- ML MIL -135 / CHI +114
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -123
- CHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 117.0 – 114.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1368 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | −18 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +62 Elo | MIL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 115.713th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 120.527th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.5 | Margin | −4.724th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 111.323rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 116.225th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.4 | Pace | 104.12nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–18 | Road vs home | 15–1720th of 30 |
| 14th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 19th of 301484 | Elo rating | 136826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–31 | 25–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders | 25–33 | 28–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–3 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.
- Feb 3CHI 115 @ MIL 131Picked CHI 52%Miss
- Dec 27MIL 112 @ CHI 103Picked CHI 53%Miss
- Nov 7CHI 110 @ MIL 126Picked MIL 61%Hit
- Dec 28MIL 111 @ CHI 116Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Dec 23MIL 112 @ CHI 91Picked CHI 56%Miss
- Nov 20CHI 106 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Oct 25CHI 133 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 78%Miss
- Mar 1MIL 113 @ CHI 97Picked CHI 56%Miss