Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints31
- Cameron PayneAssists6
- Adem BonaRebounds7
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints35
- Jalen JohnsonAssists7
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–125
- Q45.3Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound116–125
- Q46.2Adem Bona misses tip shot116–125
- Q46.2Adem Bona offensive rebound116–125
- Q410.5Cameron Payne misses driving floating jump shot116–125
- Q416.2Cameron Payne enters the game for Tyrese Maxey116–125
- Q416.276ers Full timeout116–125
- Q416.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes running dunk (CJ McCollum assists)116–125
- Q416.5CJ McCollum defensive rebound116–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:19Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 22-foot three pointer (Onyeka Okongwu assists)PHI 83 – 82 ATL · ATL 51% → 60% +10ATL 51% → 60%+10 pts
- Q36:48Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)PHI 85 – 85 ATL · ATL 53% → 63% +10ATL 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q410:14Zaccharie Risacher makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)PHI 98 – 100 ATL · ATL 55% → 68% +13ATL 55% → 68%+13 pts
- Q47:36Jalen Johnson makes 3-foot two point shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)PHI 102 – 104 ATL · ATL 58% → 68% +10ATL 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q46:56Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumperPHI 102 – 107 ATL · ATL 68% → 81% +13ATL 68% → 81%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -6.5
- ML PHI +225 / ATL -278
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 67.4%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -239
- PHI +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.0 – 120.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −80 | +4 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +127 Elo | ATL 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 117.68th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 117.321st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.318th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 113.015th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.3 | Pace | 103.74th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 14–1620th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 152015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–28 | 32–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–14 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders | 32–30 | 31–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–8 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Feb 19ATL 117 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 51%Miss
- Dec 14PHI 117 @ ATL 120Picked ATL 61%Hit
- Nov 30ATL 142 @ PHI 134Picked PHI 56%Miss
- Apr 11ATL 124 @ PHI 110Picked ATL 84%Hit
- Mar 23PHI 119 @ ATL 132Picked ATL 79%Hit
- Mar 10PHI 123 @ ATL 132Picked ATL 78%Hit
- Feb 9ATL 127 @ PHI 121Picked PHI 53%Miss
- Jan 10PHI 132 @ ATL 139Picked ATL 50%Hit