Utah Jazz at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints30
- Isaiah CollierAssists5
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds11
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints25
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Jabari WalkerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–106
- Q42.5Isaiah Collier enters the game for Mo Bamba102–106
- Q42.5Jazz Full timeout102–106
- Q42.5Jabari Walker makes free throw 2 of 2102–106
- Q42.5Mo Bamba enters the game for Isaiah Collier102–105
- Q42.5Jabari Walker makes free throw 1 of 2102–105
- Q42.5Isaiah Collier personal take foul102–104
- Q43.8Jabari Walker defensive rebound102–104
- Q47.9Kyle Filipowski misses 27-foot three point jumper102–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:48Keyonte George makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ace Bailey assists)UTAH 97 – 92 PHI · UTAH 53% → 70% +17UTAH 53% → 70%+17 pts
- Q41:50Adem Bona makes tip in dunkUTAH 100 – 100 PHI · PHI 34% → 55% +21PHI 34% → 55%+21 pts
- Q41:04Isaiah Collier makes two point shot (Kyle Filipowski assists)UTAH 102 – 100 PHI · UTAH 46% → 73% +26UTAH 46% → 73%+26 pts
- Q446.8Quentin Grimes makes 2-foot two point shotUTAH 102 – 102 PHI · PHI 23% → 53% +30PHI 23% → 53%+30 pts
- Q416.4Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2UTAH 102 – 103 PHI · PHI 52% → 77% +25PHI 52% → 77%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7.5
- ML UTAH +260 / PHI -325
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5
- PHI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 68.4%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -275
- UTAH +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 115.5 – 123.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1318 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −18 | −85 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | UTAH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +134 Elo | PHI 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 72.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 116.012th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.8 | Points allowed | 116.219th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.9 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.7 | Defense rating | 113.017th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.0 | Pace | 101.417th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–22 | Road vs home | 16–1617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 30 |
| 28th of 301318 | Elo rating | 149817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–29 | 34–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 20–13 |
| Underdog | 27–27 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 36–25 | 32–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.