Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints45
- Jamal MurrayAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints36
- Kyle FilipowskiAssists6
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–125
- Q41.6John Konchar enters the game for Kyle Filipowski128–125
- Q41.6Nuggets Full timeout128–125
- Q41.6Nikola Jokic enters the game for Zeke Nnaji128–125
- Q41.6Nuggets defensive team rebound128–125
- Q44.7Keyonte George misses 25-foot three point jumper128–125
- Q46.1Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for John Konchar128–125
- Q46.1Svi Mykhailiuk enters the game for Cody Williams128–125
- Q46.1Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Nikola Jokic128–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:19Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kyle Filipowski assists)DEN 116 – 117 UTAH · UTAH 26% → 48% +22UTAH 26% → 48%+22 pts
- Q42:43Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Elijah Harkless assists)DEN 118 – 120 UTAH · UTAH 33% → 59% +26UTAH 33% → 59%+26 pts
- Q41:28Keyonte George makes driving layupDEN 122 – 124 UTAH · UTAH 44% → 67% +23UTAH 44% → 67%+23 pts
- Q41:16Jamal Murray makes 14-foot fade away jump shotDEN 124 – 125 UTAH · DEN 21% → 43% +22DEN 21% → 43%+22 pts
- Q431.8Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 125 – 125 UTAH · DEN 34% → 54% +19DEN 34% → 54%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML DEN -575 / UTAH +425
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -10.5
- DEN 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- DEN: Elo 84.2%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -447
- UTAH +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 127.0 – 115.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1319 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +57 | −33 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +291 Elo | DEN 84.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 80.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 81.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.3 | Points scored | 117.87th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 125.730th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.4 | Margin | −8.026th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.2 | Offense rating | 112.020th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 119.530th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.8 | Pace | 104.13rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3021–12 | Road vs home | 11–2025th of 30 |
| 25th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15105th of 30 |
| 7th of 301595 | Elo rating | 131928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–27 | 31–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–20 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 26–27 |
| Overs–unders | 37–24 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 8–1 UTAH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Dec 22UTAH 112 @ DEN 135Picked DEN 84%Hit
- Mar 28UTAH 93 @ DEN 129Picked DEN 91%Hit
- Dec 30DEN 132 @ UTAH 121Picked DEN 72%Hit
- Nov 27DEN 122 @ UTAH 103Picked DEN 81%Hit
- Nov 2UTAH 103 @ DEN 129Picked DEN 81%Hit
- Apr 9DEN 111 @ UTAH 95Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Mar 9UTAH 121 @ DEN 142Picked DEN 73%Hit
- Jan 10DEN 111 @ UTAH 124Picked DEN 57%Miss