Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints23
- Jalen JohnsonAssists9
- Dyson DanielsRebounds10
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints24
- Ryan RollinsAssists12
- Jericho SimsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–113
- Q417.8Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound131–113
- Q421.7Gary Trent Jr. misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot131–113
- Q429.4Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound131–113
- Q430.6Christian Koloko blocks Thanasis Antetokounmpo 's 7-foot driving layup131–113
- Q444.2Bucks defensive team rebound131–113
- Q444.2Thanasis Antetokounmpo blocks Zaccharie Risacher 's 2-foot running layup131–113
- Q446.1Christian Koloko defensive rebound131–113
- Q450.6Cam Thomas misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot131–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q257.6Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 66 – 68 MIL · MIL 48% → 57% +9MIL 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q311:20Onyeka Okongwu makes 27-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)ATL 69 – 71 MIL · ATL 35% → 43% +9ATL 35% → 43%+9 pts
- Q38:34Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)ATL 76 – 71 MIL · ATL 56% → 65% +9ATL 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q37:36Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)ATL 81 – 73 MIL · ATL 65% → 74% +9ATL 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q411:11Mouhamed Gueye makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)ATL 101 – 91 MIL · ATL 77% → 86% +9ATL 77% → 86%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -1.5
- ML ATL -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -0.5
- MIL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 51.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.5 – 117.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +28 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +13 Elo | MIL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 111.328th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 115.516th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −4.223rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 111.521st of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 115.724th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 99.425th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 14–1519th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 144622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–31 | 27–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 30–32 | 25–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–5 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Jan 19MIL 112 @ ATL 110Picked ATL 52%Miss
- Mar 30ATL 145 @ MIL 124Picked MIL 61%Miss
- Mar 4MIL 127 @ ATL 121Picked MIL 66%Hit
- Feb 7MIL 110 @ ATL 115Picked MIL 56%Miss
- Dec 14ATL 102 @ MIL 110Picked MIL 60%Hit
- Dec 4ATL 119 @ MIL 104Picked MIL 61%Miss
- Mar 30MIL 122 @ ATL 113Picked ATL 51%Miss
- Dec 2ATL 121 @ MIL 132Picked MIL 66%Hit