Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints21
- Marvin Bagley IIIAssists6
- Cooper FlaggRebounds12
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints29
- Dyson DanielsAssists10
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–124
- Q44.7shot clock turnover112–124
- Q428.2Jalen Johnson defensive rebound112–124
- Q431.8Khris Middleton misses 10-foot fade away jump shot112–124
- Q438.7Khris Middleton defensive rebound112–124
- Q442.5CJ McCollum misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot112–124
- Q458.3Cooper Flagg makes tip shot112–124
- Q458.3Cooper Flagg offensive rebound110–124
- Q41:00Cooper Flagg misses driving floating jump shot110–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:34Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three pointer (Khris Middleton assists)DAL 95 – 97 ATL · DAL 18% → 28% +11DAL 18% → 28%+11 pts
- Q49:02Khris Middleton makes 20-foot step back jumpshot (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 97 – 97 ATL · DAL 28% → 37% +9DAL 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q48:41Jalen Johnson makes 2-foot layup (Dyson Daniels assists)DAL 97 – 99 ATL · ATL 63% → 72% +9ATL 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q47:23Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 99 – 105 ATL · ATL 76% → 86% +11ATL 76% → 86%+11 pts
- Q45:03Onyeka Okongwu makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)DAL 104 – 112 ATL · ATL 85% → 94% +8ATL 85% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -9.5
- ML DAL +330 / ATL -425
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -7.5
- ATL 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 77.6%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -348
- DAL +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.5 – 125.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +15 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +216 Elo | ATL 77.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 76.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 76.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.0 | Points scored | 117.77th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 117.321st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−4.8 | Margin | +0.418th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 113.114th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.4 | Pace | 103.73rd of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–23 | Road vs home | 15–1619th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 25th of 301370 | Elo rating | 152615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–36 | 33–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 21–22 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders | 27–37 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–0 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.