Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints19
- Cooper FlaggAssists6
- Cooper FlaggRebounds8
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints24
- Jaylen BrownAssists7
- Neemias QuetaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–120
- Q422.3shot clock turnover100–120
- Q446.0Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound100–120
- Q448.6Ryan Nembhard misses 31-foot three point jumper100–120
- Q41:02Moussa Cisse defensive rebound100–120
- Q41:03Baylor Scheierman misses driving floating jump shot100–120
- Q41:16Brandon Williams makes 15-foot pullup jump shot100–120
- Q41:39Brandon Williams defensive rebound98–120
- Q41:41Ron Harper Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper98–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:22Hugo Gonzalez makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)DAL 45 – 44 BOS · BOS 74% → 80% +6BOS 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q22:51Naji Marshall makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 48 – 44 BOS · DAL 20% → 27% +6DAL 20% → 27%+6 pts
- Q310:43Max Christie makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 60 – 58 BOS · DAL 18% → 25% +7DAL 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q35:47Klay Thompson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)DAL 72 – 74 BOS · DAL 12% → 18% +6DAL 12% → 18%+6 pts
- Q34:27Klay Thompson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 75 – 76 BOS · DAL 14% → 21% +7DAL 14% → 21%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -15.5
- ML DAL +750 / BOS -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -16
- BOS 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 92.8%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -785
- DAL +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 105.5 – 121.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1650 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −32 | +69 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +445 Elo | BOS 92.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 92.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 92.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.5 | Points scored | 114.521st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 107.11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.1 | Margin | +7.33rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 117.82nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 110.15th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.5 | Pace | 96.930th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–21 | Road vs home | 20–106th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 147930th of 30 |
| 25th of 301382 | Elo rating | 16502nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–34 | 36–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 26–20 |
| Underdog | 21–20 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–35 | 22–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–8 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Feb 3BOS 110 @ DAL 100Picked BOS 70%Hit
- Feb 6DAL 127 @ BOS 120Picked BOS 84%Miss
- Jan 25BOS 122 @ DAL 107Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Jun 17DAL 88 @ BOS 106PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- Jun 14BOS 84 @ DAL 122PlayoffsPicked BOS 61%Miss
- Jun 12BOS 106 @ DAL 99PlayoffsPicked BOS 57%Hit
- Jun 9DAL 98 @ BOS 105PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- Jun 6DAL 89 @ BOS 107PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit