Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints24
- Khris MiddletonAssists7
- Daniel GaffordRebounds13
Magic- Tristan da SilvaPoints19
- Jalen SuggsAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–115
- Q40.0(00:00) [Mavericks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)114–115
- Q41.4Max Christie enters the game for Daniel Gafford114–115
- Q41.4Mavericks Full timeout114–115
- Q41.4Wendell Carter Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)114–115
- Q46.8Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound114–113
- Q48.7Cooper Flagg misses 13-foot pullup jump shot114–113
- Q432.2Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three pointer114–113
- Q437.3Tristan da Silva enters the game for Goga Bitadze114–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:00Tristan da Silva makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)DAL 107 – 108 ORL · ORL 35% → 65% +30ORL 35% → 65%+30 pts
- Q41:12Daniel Gafford makes 5-foot two point shot (Klay Thompson assists)DAL 111 – 110 ORL · DAL 33% → 59% +26DAL 33% → 59%+26 pts
- Q437.3Cooper Flagg makes driving layup (Khris Middleton assists)DAL 113 – 110 ORL · DAL 65% → 90% +25DAL 65% → 90%+25 pts
- Q432.2Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three pointerDAL 114 – 113 ORL · ORL 3% → 33% +31ORL 3% → 33%+31 pts
- Q41.4Wendell Carter Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)DAL 114 – 115 ORL · ORL <1% → >99% +98ORL <1% → >99%+98 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -7.5
- ML DAL +260 / ORL -325
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5
- ORL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- ORL: Elo 69.9%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- ORL -275
- DAL +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 111.5 – 119.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | −13 | DAL: Missing Brandon Williams −15 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +147 Elo | ORL 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.5 | Points scored | 114.819th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 114.312th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.1 | Margin | +0.416th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 112.219th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 111.811th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Pace | 101.416th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–20 | Road vs home | 18–1111th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 24th of 301385 | Elo rating | 147019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−39 Elo- Brandon Williams left quad contusion−15 Elo
Magic
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–34 | 26–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 20–20 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–34 | 31–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–0 ORL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.