Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Will RileyPoints19
- Will RileyAssists5
- Leaky BlackRebounds9
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints37
- Jalen SuggsAssists9
- Tristan da SilvaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–126
- Q43.9shot clock turnover109–126
- Q428.1Will Riley makes driving layup109–126
- Q434.0Jamal Cain personal foul107–126
- Q443.9Noah Penda makes free throw 2 of 2107–126
- Q443.9Noah Penda makes free throw 1 of 2107–125
- Q443.9Jaden Hardy personal foul107–124
- Q41:02Will Riley makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Sharife Cooper assists)107–124
- Q41:05Sharife Cooper defensive rebound104–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:19Jaden Hardy makes 26-foot three point jumper (Justin Champagnie assists)WSH 31 – 29 ORL · WSH 13% → 18% +4WSH 13% → 18%+4 pts
- Q29:11Bub Carrington makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 34 – 36 ORL · WSH 9% → 12% +3WSH 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q311:45Desmond Bane makes driving layup (Jalen Suggs assists)WSH 54 – 59 ORL · ORL 86% → 89% +3ORL 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q311:05Will Riley makes 2-foot two point shotWSH 56 – 59 ORL · WSH 11% → 14% +3WSH 11% → 14%+3 pts
- Q310:50Paolo Banchero makes layup (Jalen Suggs assists)WSH 56 – 61 ORL · ORL 86% → 89% +3ORL 86% → 89%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -15.5
- ML WSH +800 / ORL -1350
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -9.5
- ORL 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- ORL: Elo 82.2%, market 89.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -838
- WSH +838 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 106.5 – 122.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1303 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −22 | +6 | WSH: Missing Anthony Gill −2, Jamir Watkins −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +266 Elo | ORL 82.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 88.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 87.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 89.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 114.621st of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.0 | Points allowed | 114.412th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.7 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 112.020th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.7 | Defense rating | 111.813th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.416th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–23 | Road vs home | 17–1111th of 30 |
| 7th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15106th of 30 |
| 30th of 301303 | Elo rating | 146519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−22 Elo- Anthony Gill illness−2 Elo
- Jamir Watkins left ankle sprain−1 Elo
Magic
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–34 | 25–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 16–23 |
| Underdog | 24–32 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 32–28 | 30–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–9 ORL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Jan 6ORL 112 @ WSH 120Picked ORL 71%Miss
- Nov 1ORL 125 @ WSH 94Picked ORL 76%Hit
- Apr 3ORL 109 @ WSH 97Picked ORL 90%Hit
- Mar 21ORL 120 @ WSH 105Picked ORL 75%Hit
- Feb 23WSH 90 @ ORL 110Picked ORL 85%Hit
- Nov 10WSH 94 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 83%Hit
- Mar 6ORL 119 @ WSH 109Picked ORL 73%Hit
- Dec 26ORL 127 @ WSH 119Picked ORL 61%Hit