Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints27
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists11
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds10
Wizards- Will RileyPoints19
- Bub CarringtonAssists5
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–125
- Q420.9Sharife Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2134–125
- Q420.9Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 2134–124
- Q420.9Ja'Kobe Walter shooting foul134–123
- Q432.2Wizards defensive team rebound134–123
- Q435.4Immanuel Quickley misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot134–123
- Q454.7Will Riley makes 7-foot two point shot134–123
- Q41:10Immanuel Quickley makes driving layup134–121
- Q41:22Jaden Hardy personal foul132–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:47Kyshawn George makes 27-foot three point jumper (Sharife Cooper assists)TOR 50 – 57 WSH · WSH 29% → 36% +7WSH 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q255.8Immanuel Quickley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)TOR 59 – 62 WSH · TOR 64% → 72% +8TOR 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q310:48Tre Johnson makes 32-foot running pullup jump shot (Bub Carrington assists)TOR 63 – 67 WSH · WSH 25% → 33% +8WSH 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q39:52Kyshawn George makes 34-foot three pointerTOR 67 – 70 WSH · WSH 23% → 31% +8WSH 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q36:41Bilal Coulibaly makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)TOR 79 – 80 WSH · WSH 20% → 27% +8WSH 20% → 27%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -13.5
- ML TOR -900 / WSH +600
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -8
- TOR 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 78.4%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -630
- WSH +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 121.5 – 108.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1309 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | −32 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Alex Sarr −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +224 Elo | TOR 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 84.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 83.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.6 | Points scored | 111.926th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 122.829th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −10.930th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 108.029th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 118.428th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.4 | Pace | 103.48th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3018–10 | Road vs home | 11–1925th of 30 |
| 9th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 18th of 301490 | Elo rating | 130930th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−32 Elo- Alex Sarr right hamstring−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–28 | 24–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–19 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 22–32 |
| Overs–unders | 23–36 | 30–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–3 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Dec 26TOR 117 @ WSH 138Picked TOR 73%Miss
- Nov 21WSH 110 @ TOR 140Picked TOR 86%Hit
- Mar 24TOR 112 @ WSH 104Picked WSH 54%Miss
- Mar 10WSH 104 @ TOR 119Picked TOR 69%Hit
- Mar 8WSH 118 @ TOR 117Picked TOR 62%Miss
- Jan 29TOR 106 @ WSH 82Picked TOR 67%Hit
- Apr 7WSH 122 @ TOR 130Picked WSH 50%Miss
- Mar 23TOR 109 @ WSH 112Picked WSH 72%Hit