Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints32
- Reed SheppardAssists10
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints23
- Bub CarringtonAssists4
- Bub CarringtonRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–118
- Q40.0(00:00) [Rockets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)123–118
- Q40.1Sharife Cooper makes 26-foot three pointer123–118
- Q45.2shot clock turnover123–115
- Q429.2Bub Carrington makes technical free throw123–115
- Q429.2Kevin Durant technical foul123–114
- Q429.2Sharife Cooper makes running layup (Justin Champagnie assists)123–114
- Q432.5Kevin Durant bad pass
turnover (Justin Champagnie steals)123–112
- Q448.8Justin Champagnie makes 3-foot dunk123–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:28Kyshawn George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)HOU 13 – 17 WSH · WSH 16% → 21% +5WSH 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q13:37Reed Sheppard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)HOU 18 – 19 WSH · HOU 79% → 84% +5HOU 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q11:32Sharife Cooper makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 24 – 28 WSH · WSH 17% → 22% +5WSH 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q211:05Will Riley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamir Watkins assists)HOU 28 – 33 WSH · WSH 20% → 25% +5WSH 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q210:45Reed Sheppard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)HOU 31 – 33 WSH · HOU 75% → 80% +6HOU 75% → 80%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -14.5
- ML HOU -1000 / WSH +650
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -10
- HOU 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 82.9%, market 87.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -682
- WSH +682 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 119.5 – 105.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1305 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | −37 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −14, Anthony Gill −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +274 Elo | HOU 82.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 88.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 88.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 87.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.5 | Points scored | 112.224th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 123.029th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.3 | Margin | −10.829th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 108.327th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 118.728th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.9 | Pace | 103.38th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 11–2025th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 8th of 301572 | Elo rating | 130530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−37 Elo- Tristan Vukcevic left thigh contusion−14 Elo
- Anthony Gill illness−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–32 | 25–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–31 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 23–32 |
| Overs–unders | 25–34 | 31–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–0 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.