Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Daniel GaffordPoints21
- Cooper FlaggAssists6
- Daniel GaffordRebounds11
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints31
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–122
- Q410.8Brandon Williams makes free throw 2 of 292–122
- Q410.8Brandon Williams makes free throw 1 of 291–122
- Q410.8Sandro Mamukelashvili shooting foul90–122
- Q429.9Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)90–122
- Q434.4Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound90–119
- Q437.6Brandon Williams blocks Gradey Dick 's 4-foot running layup90–119
- Q441.6Ja'Kobe Walter defensive rebound90–119
- Q443.5AJ Johnson misses driving layup90–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:16P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 3 – 2 TOR · DAL 20% → 25% +5DAL 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q110:16Scottie Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)DAL 5 – 5 TOR · TOR 71% → 76% +5TOR 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q11.6Immanuel Quickley makes 28-foot three pointerDAL 29 – 36 TOR · TOR 81% → 85% +5TOR 81% → 85%+5 pts
- Q211:18Brandon Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daniel Gafford assists)DAL 32 – 36 TOR · DAL 15% → 19% +5DAL 15% → 19%+5 pts
- Q28:27Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)DAL 34 – 44 TOR · TOR 85% → 89% +4TOR 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -9.5
- ML DAL +310 / TOR -395
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -6
- TOR 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 72.2%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -327
- DAL +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 112.0 – 121.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +40 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +166 Elo | TOR 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 74.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 73.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.3 | Points scored | 113.522nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 112.08th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.3 | Margin | +1.512th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 112.517th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 111.08th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.4 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–22 | Road vs home | 16–1618th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 25th of 301381 | Elo rating | 147619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–35 | 31–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 21–21 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–36 | 24–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–1 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.