Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints25
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds7
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints22
- Rudy GobertAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–115
- Q415.5Trayce Jackson-Davis makes two point shot107–115
- Q416.7Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound105–115
- Q417.9Trayce Jackson-Davis misses 2-foot tip shot105–115
- Q417.9Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound105–115
- Q419.9Jamison Battle misses 26-foot three point jumper105–115
- Q422.2Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound105–115
- Q425.6Gradey Dick misses 25-foot three point jumper105–115
- Q434.0Jamison Battle defensive rebound105–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:11RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 49 – 42 MIN · TOR 48% → 55% +8TOR 48% → 55%+8 pts
- Q311:44Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)TOR 54 – 58 MIN · MIN 64% → 72% +8MIN 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q310:50Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three pointer (Jakob Poeltl assists)TOR 59 – 59 MIN · TOR 31% → 39% +8TOR 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q39:25Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerTOR 61 – 64 MIN · MIN 61% → 69% +9MIN 61% → 69%+9 pts
- Q36:09Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)TOR 67 – 73 MIN · MIN 69% → 78% +8MIN 69% → 78%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML TOR +180 / MIN -218
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.7%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -192
- TOR +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.0 – 115.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | 0 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +76 Elo | MIN 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.7 | Points scored | 119.14th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 114.513th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +4.67th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 115.410th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 111.09th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.710th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–10 | Road vs home | 21–117th of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148828th of 30 |
| 18th of 301483 | Elo rating | 156710th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–30 | 26–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–20 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 24–37 | 30–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.