New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints31
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists12
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–95
- Q416.2Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound111–95
- Q419.0Alijah Martin misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot111–95
- Q429.5Ariel Hukporti out of bounds lost ball turnover111–95
- Q439.2Jose Alvarado defensive rebound111–95
- Q442.4Gradey Dick misses 16-foot pullup jump shot111–95
- Q450.1Kevin McCullar Jr. enters the game for Mikal Bridges111–95
- Q450.1Tyler Kolek enters the game for Josh Hart111–95
- Q450.1Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Jamal Shead111–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q335.0Jalen Brunson makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jose Alvarado assists)NY 87 – 82 TOR · NY 62% → 73% +11NY 62% → 73%+11 pts
- Q46:21RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)NY 95 – 91 TOR · TOR 14% → 26% +12TOR 14% → 26%+12 pts
- Q45:50Immanuel Quickley makes 7-foot running pullup jump shotNY 95 – 93 TOR · TOR 25% → 36% +10TOR 25% → 36%+10 pts
- Q44:37Mikal Bridges makes running dunk (Josh Hart assists)NY 97 – 93 TOR · NY 65% → 77% +11NY 65% → 77%+11 pts
- Q43:20Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerNY 100 – 93 TOR · NY 80% → 92% +12NY 80% → 92%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -2.5
- ML NY -148 / TOR +124
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2.5
- NY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- NY: Elo 60.8%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -134
- TOR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 112.0 – 109.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +47 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +76 Elo | NY 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 55.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 114.022nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 112.08th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.2 | Margin | +2.012th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 110.87th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.420th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 16–1516th of 30 |
| 24th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150217th of 30 |
| 4th of 301639 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–30 | 31–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–24 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 24–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 11–0 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.