Utah Jazz at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints22
- Kyle FilipowskiAssists6
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints27
- Ousmane DiengAssists9
- Ryan RollinsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–113
- Q420.9Kyle Kuzma makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)99–113
- Q432.4Jericho Sims defensive rebound99–110
- Q436.2Kyle Filipowski misses 23-foot three point jumper99–110
- Q447.0Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)99–110
- Q41:06Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound99–107
- Q41:10Kyle Filipowski misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot99–107
- Q41:15Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound99–107
- Q41:18Giannis Antetokounmpo misses 25-foot three point jumper99–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:16Ace Bailey makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 71 – 69 MIL · UTAH 30% → 40% +10UTAH 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q31:55Elijah Harkless makes 23-foot running jump shot (Cody Williams assists)UTAH 74 – 74 MIL · UTAH 24% → 34% +10UTAH 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q31:34AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)UTAH 74 – 77 MIL · MIL 66% → 76% +10MIL 66% → 76%+10 pts
- Q45:41Brice Sensabaugh makes 28-foot three pointer (Kyle Filipowski assists)UTAH 93 – 97 MIL · UTAH 9% → 19% +10UTAH 9% → 19%+10 pts
- Q44:32Ryan Rollins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jericho Sims assists)UTAH 95 – 100 MIL · MIL 72% → 86% +14MIL 72% → 86%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -9.5
- ML UTAH +340 / MIL -440
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6
- MIL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 72.4%, market 78.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -359
- UTAH +359 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.5 – 120.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1329 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +24 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +168 Elo | MIL 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 74.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 78.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 111.428th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.2 | Points allowed | 115.817th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.6 | Margin | −4.424th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 111.522nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.5 | Defense rating | 116.024th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.7 | Pace | 99.325th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–23 | Road vs home | 14–1621st of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 28th of 301329 | Elo rating | 143022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–29 | 27–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 29–27 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 36–27 | 26–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–2 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.