Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Ace BaileyPoints32
- Isaiah CollierAssists11
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds14
Wizards- Julian ReesePoints18
- Trae YoungAssists6
- Julian ReeseRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–112
- Q43.1shot clock turnover122–112
- Q425.8Cody Williams defensive rebound122–112
- Q429.3Will Riley misses 27-foot three point jumper122–112
- Q442.0Kyle Filipowski makes 1-foot dunk (Isaiah Collier assists)122–112
- Q454.0Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound120–112
- Q455.9Bilal Coulibaly misses free throw 2 of 2120–112
- Q455.9Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2120–112
- Q455.9Ace Bailey shooting foul120–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:28Tre Johnson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 87 – 80 WSH · WSH 21% → 30% +9WSH 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q32:07Ace Bailey makes 26-foot three point jumperUTAH 90 – 80 WSH · UTAH 70% → 79% +9UTAH 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q49:54Julian Reese makes two point shotUTAH 93 – 88 WSH · WSH 25% → 32% +8WSH 25% → 32%+8 pts
- Q49:44Kyle Filipowski makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cody Williams assists)UTAH 96 – 88 WSH · UTAH 68% → 79% +11UTAH 68% → 79%+11 pts
- Q46:32Isaiah Collier makes 24-foot three pointerUTAH 103 – 93 WSH · UTAH 81% → 91% +9UTAH 81% → 91%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wizards 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -3.5
- ML UTAH +140 / WSH -166
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -4
- WSH 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 66.2%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -150
- UTAH +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.5 – 122.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1314 | 1299 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −28 | +28 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +117 Elo | WSH 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 112.225th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.5 | Points allowed | 123.029th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.8 | Margin | −10.829th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 108.427th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.5 | Defense rating | 118.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Pace | 103.28th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–23 | Road vs home | 11–2125th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 28th of 301314 | Elo rating | 129930th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–29 | 26–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 28–27 | 24–33 |
| Overs–unders | 36–26 | 33–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 3–1 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.